Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction 4/30/25 Madrid Tennis Picks

Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti meet in the round of 16 of the 2025 ATP Madrid Open on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. Here’s our Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction. This preview will also include an Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti pick.

Alex de Minaur Preview

Alex de Minaur is coming off a straight-sets win over 29th seed Denis Shapovalov. De Minaur completed a 6-3, 7-6 win in one and a half hours. The sixth seed hit 13 winners and 15 unforced errors. He accounted for one ace in the match. De Minaur landed 60% of first serves in play and won 81% of first serve points (30/37). He won 75% of second serve points (21/28) and saved the one breakpoint he faced.

De Minaur had beaten Lorenzo Sonego a round earlier. He has won seven of his last nine matches. De Minaur’s most recent two defeats have been to Lorenzo Musetti and Carlos Alcaraz. He is chasing his third successive quarterfinal on clay, after a semifinal in Monte Carlo and a quarterfinal in Barcelona.

Lorenzo Musetti Preview

Lorenzo Musetti upset 17th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-5, 7-6 in almost two hours to reach the last 16. Musetti saved a set point in the first set to hold for 5-all, and broke Tsitsipas in the next game before serving for the set to 15 for a 7-5 lead. In the second set, neither player dropped their serve, with Tsitsipas doing a remarkable job to save five breakpoints and force a tie-break. But Musetti raised his level and took a 6-0 lead in the breaker before sealing it 7-3.

Musetti finished the match with 21 winners and 11 unforced errors. He accounted for four aces. Musetti landed 76% of first serves in play and won 77% of first serve points (47/61). He won 42% of second serve points (8/19) and saved four of five breakpoints in the match. Musetti had beaten Tomas Martin Etcheverry in his opening match in Madrid. The Italian has an 8-1 record on clay. His only defeat was to Carlos Alcaraz in the Monte Carlo final.

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti Head-To-Head

De Minaur and Musetti have met three times on the ATP level. Musetti brings a 2-1 lead, having beaten De Minaur en route to the Monte Carlo final two weeks ago.

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction 

Although Musetti got the better of De Minaur in their only clay meeting, I’m leaning toward the Aussie in their rematch. Conditions are slightly different in Madrid, and if anything, Musetti’s win in Monte Carlo on a slow clay court wasn’t at all convincing. De Minaur is sharper, fitter, and one of the fastest players on tour, who can hurt the Italian if he takes control of points for vast stretches of this match. Consistency is key, and De Minaur needs to ensure there are no let-ups, something that didn’t happen in Monte Carlo after he won the first set 6-1. Musetti is a player who thrives on rhythm, and if De Minaur doesn’t zone out after a few games, he’ll make it challenging for the 10th seed.

Nur Said's Pick: Alex de Minaur in three sets