ATP Finals Prediction: Sinner vs De Minaur 11/15/2025 Today’s Tennis Picks

Defending champion Jannik Sinner will face World No. 7 Alex De Minaur in the semifinal of the 2025 ATP Finals. The match is scheduled for Saturday, November 15. Here’s our Jannik Sinner vs Alex De Minaur prediction. This preview will also include a Jannik Sinner vs Alex De Minaur pick.

Jannik Sinner vs Alex De Minaur Preview

Jannik Sinner topped his group and finished with a perfect 3-0 record. He extended his winning streak on indoor hard courts to 29 matches with a straight sets victory against Ben Shelton. That match took 22 games to decide and lasted an hour and 36 minutes. 

Sinner won the first set 6-3 with a couple of breaks of serve. Shelton saved a match point at 4-5 down and forced a second-set tiebreak. But Sinner was flawless in the tiebreak ,where he did not lose a single point on his serve. He won it 7-3. This was his eighth win in a row in Turin.

Alex De Minaur miraculously qualified for the semifinals at the expense of both Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Musetti. The Australian lost his first two matches in the tournament, but was given a lifeline in his final group match. All he needed was to beat Fritz in straight sets and hope Alcaraz would do him a massive favor by winning his match against Musetti.

De Minaur certainly delivered on his end, managing to beat Fritz for the sixth time in their 11th meeting in straight sets to eliminate the American. In the evening session, Alcaraz defeated Musetti to finish the season as World No.1 and confirm De Minaur’s progress into the semis for the first time.

Jannik Sinner vs Alex De Minaur Head-To-Head

Sinner has a 12-0 record against De Minaur at all levels.

Jannik Sinner vs Alex De Minaur Prediction

De Minaur achieved something extremely rare at the ATP Finals, becoming only the third player to qualify after losing two group matches. He now faces a near impossible task against World No. 2 Sinner, who has beaten him in all 12 matches they’ve played. If De Minaur is to shock the world, he’ll need an insane amount of luck. Sinner has not lost an indoor match in years and the Italian looks good value to cover the -4.5 games handicap.

Nur Said's Pick: Sinner -4.5 games handicap