Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction 10/17/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners meet Friday in MLB Game 5 ALCS action at T-Mobile Park. Here’s a Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction. This article will include a Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Pick.

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays look for a third straight win to take a 3-2 series lead. The Toronto Blue Jays are batting .301 on the season, have a .353 OBP, and a .547 slugging percentage. The Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff has a 5.46 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the Toronto Blue Jays with 15 hits and 11 RBI while Ernie Clement and Daulton Varsho have combined for 23 hits and 13 RBI.

Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he is 10-11 with a 3.59 ERA and 189 strikeouts this season. Gausman is 1-3 with a 4.14 ERA and 38 strikeouts in his postseason career. Gausman is 2-4 with a 2.94 ERA and 74 strikeouts in his career against the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners need a win to stop the bleeding and take a 3-2 series lead. The Seattle Mariners are batting .215 on the season, have a .298 OBP, and a .382 slugging percentage. The Seattle Mariners pitching staff has a 4.40 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Josh Naylor leads the Seattle Mariners with 12 hits and 3 RBI, while Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco have combined for 20 hits and 14 RBI.

Bryce Miller gets the ball for the Seattle Mariners, and he is 4-6 with a 5.68 ERA and 74 strikeouts this season. Miller is 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 5 strikeouts in his postseason career. Miller is 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA and 9 strikeouts in his career against the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Bryce Miller      Record this season (inc. playoffs): 5-6      ERA: 5.36
• Home Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-1

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Mariners’ last six games.
• The Blue Jays have lost nine of their last 10 games as favorites against the Mariners following a road win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last 15 games between the Blue Jays and Mariners at T-Mobile Park.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 games as road favorites against American League opponents.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four playoff games as road favorites.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six road day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman      Record this season (inc. playoffs): 11-12      ERA: 3.52
• Road Record: 5-6
• Last 5 against Mariners: 1-2

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Blue Jays have won each of their last seven road games against the Mariners.
• The Mariners have lost eight of their last nine games against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line each of their last nine Friday games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Mariners have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five playoff games against AL East opponents.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five playoff games against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the last nine games between the Blue Jays and Mariners have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Blue Jays’ last five road games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last eight games as home underdogs against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last four games as favorites.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Cal Raleigh has recorded a Double in three of the Mariners’ last four games as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Bryce Miller has recorded three or more strikeouts in 27 of his last 29 home appearances.
• Cal Raleigh has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners’ last 10 Friday games as underdogs.
• Luke Raley has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with his team as a home underdog against the Blue Jays.
• Cal Raleigh ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.589) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit a home run in three of the Blue Jays’ last four road playoff games.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances in day games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
• Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five road appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites against AL West opponents.
• George Springer ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.309) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mariners rank 3rd in the league for home runs this season (238).
• The Mariners rank T3rd in the league for steals this season (161).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.333).
• The Blue Jays rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (1099).

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

The Blue Jays have found their offense over the last two games, and as they showed throughout the regular season, once they get going it can be hard to stop. The Mariners may have a problem on their hands. Gausman has also been dealing lately, allowing 36 hits and 13 runs in his last 43.2 innings. In 97.1 road innings, Gausman has a 3.33 ERA and .195 allowed batting average. The Mariners pitching staff is getting all the bad press lately, but the offense hasn’t hit the ball well in the postseason, so there are concerns across the board right now out west. Miller has shined through 10.1 postseason innings, but let’s not forget he had a 5.68 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the season. In 45 home innings, Miller had a 5.80 ERA and .262 allowed batting average. With the way the Blue Jays are swinging the bats, the M’s could be in trouble. I’ll ride with the Blue Jays in game 5.