Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 9/11/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Houston Astros and the Toronto Blue Jays meet Thursday in MLB action from Rogers Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Houston Astros will send out Cristian Javier here and Javier is 1-2 with a 4.43 ERA and 20 strikeouts this season. In his career, Javier is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 16 strikeouts against the Blue Jays. Toronto will send out Kevin Gausman for the start here and Gausman is 9-10 with a 3.63 ERA and 162 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Astros, Gausman is 2-3 with a 5.28 ERA and 43 strikeouts.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to add on to their 3-2 win over the Blue Jays from Wednesday’s matchup to sit at 79-67 this season. fter this series, the Astros will head on the road for a series against the Atlanta Braves.

Astros Looking To Win Rubber Match

Jose Altuve has 142 hits including 22 doubles, 24 home runs and 69 RBIs. Jeremy Pena also has 137 hits with 26 doubles, 15 homers and 54 RBIs with 20 stolen bases as well. Jake Meyers has 15 doubles as well and Christian Walker has 22 home runs and 76 RBIs but has also accrued a team-high 156 strikeouts so far this season. Altuve also has 9 stolen bases while Jake Meyers has 15 stolen bases this season. Isaac Paredes also has 19 home runs with 50 RBIs of his own and Cam Smith has contributed 8 homers and 49 RBIs. Yainer Diaz has also chipped in 120 hits with 18 home runs, 60 RBIs and 20 doubles.

Toronto Blue Jays Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss to Houston last time out to sit at 83-62 this season. After this series, the Blue Jays will take on the Baltimore Orioles in a series at home.

Blue Jays Looking To Avoid Back-To-Back Series Losses

George Springer has 127 hits and Bo Bichette has 181 hits with Springer adding 27 home runs, a triple, 21 doubles and 72 RBIs while Bichette has 44 doubles, 18 home runs and 93 RBIs. Andres Gimenez has added 60 hits with 8 doubles and 7 home runs and 27 RBIs this season along with 12 stolen bases. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also has 23 homers, 33 doubles and 79 RBIs while Springer also has a .301 batting average and 91 strikeouts up to this point in the year. Addison Barger’s chipped in 27 doubles with 19 home runs and 65 RBIs and Ernie Clement’s added 28 doubles as part of his 132 hits this season.

Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends: September 11, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman      Record this season: 9-10      ERA: 3.63
• Home Record: 4-4
• Last 5 against Astros: 2-3

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Blue Jays have won each of their last six home games against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Astros have lost eight of their last nine day games against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line each of their last eight Thursday games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games following a win.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last eight day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six day games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Cristian Javier      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 4.43
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 2-1

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Blue Jays’ last five games at Rogers Centre.
• The Blue Jays have lost three of their last four games as home favorites.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games against the Blue Jays.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 home games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games against the Blue Jays.
• The Astros have won the first inning in six of their last eight games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last six games between the Astros and Blue Jays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Astros’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Astros’ last 12 games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Blue Jays’ last eight games against AL West opponents.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• George Springer has hit at least one home run in three of the Blue Jays’ last four games as favorites.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded a win in three of his four previous home appearances against the Astros.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded seven or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine home appearances against AL West opponents.
• Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 21 appearances with the Blue Jays as home favorites against AL opponents.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.393) this season.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Cristian Javier has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Cristian Javier has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in day games against AL East teams that held a winning record.
• Christian Walker has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last nine road games.
• Isaac Paredes has hit at least one home run in each of his last two road appearances against AL East opponents.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded a Double in each of the Astros’ last three games as underdogs.
• Jeremy Pena ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.299) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1329).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.268).
• The Astros rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1381).
• The Astros rank 4th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.231).

Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

I’m on the Blue Jays here. I know Houston found a way to pull it out of the fire late against Toronto on Wednesday, but I still think that Toronto is the better team at the end of the day and Javier scontinues to have issues with control on the mound. Gausman’s been up and down at times, but he’s been known to pitch a lot better at home and I think he gets it done here. Give me the Blue Jays.