Brewers vs Nationals Prediction 5/1/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Brewers vs Nationals prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 1st at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 16-14 this year after they won two out of three against the Diamondbacks by scores of 13-2, 2-6, and 13-1. In game three, Milwaukee jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first inning and they never looked back in the very easy win. The Brewers recorded 14 hits in the game and they were led by Contreras, who went 4-4 with one home run and four RBIs. Woodruff left the game after 1.1 innings with an injury, while Drohan picked up the win in relief. Prior to that series, Milwaukee lost two out of three against the Pirates and two out of three against the Tigers. 

This season, Milwaukee has a 3.74 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a .234 opponent batting average, while they have scored 160 runs with a .241 batting average and a .338 on base percentage. Brice Turang has led the Brewers with four home runs and 20 RBIs, while Jake Bauers has added five home run and 19 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Jacob Misiorowski, who is 1-2 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 32.2 innings pitched this year. 

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are 15-17 this season after they won two out of three against the Mets by scores of 0-8, 14-2, and 5-4. In game three, Washington trailed 4-3 in the sixth inning, but they scored two runs in the eighth to escape with the win. The Nationals recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Abrams, who went 2-3 with one home run and three RBIs. Mikolas allowed three hits and three earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Parker got the win and Varland picked up the save. Prior to that series, Washington won two out of three against the White Sox, but lost three out of four against the Braves before that. 

This season, Washington has a 5.08 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP and a .262 opponent batting average, while they have scored 175 runs with a .243 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. CJ Abrams has led the Nationals with eight home runs and 26 RBIs, while James Wood has added 10 home runs and 24 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Jake Irvin, who is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 29.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Brewers have lost each of their last four games as road favorites against National League opponents.
• The Nationals have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last five games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Brewers have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four road games against opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Nationals have lost each of their last eight games at Nationals Park following a win.
• The road team has won each of the last six games between the Brewers and Nationals.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games at Nationals Park following a win.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last eight night games against the Nationals following a home win.
• The Brewers have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six home games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Nationals’ last nine games as underdogs against the Brewers have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Brewers’ last eight night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last five games between the Brewers and Nationals at Nationals Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Brewers’ last seven night games.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Luis Garcia has hit a home run in five of his last 11 appearances against the Brewers after playing the previous day.
• CJ Abrams has recorded at least one hit in each of the Nationals’ last 10 Friday games at Nationals Park.
• James Wood ranks T5th in the league in Home Runs (10) this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Brice Turang has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances against the Nationals after playing the previous day.
• Andrew Vaughn has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Brice Turang ranks 8th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.422) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Nationals rank 2nd in the league for RBIs this season (161).
• The Nationals rank 29th in the league for ERA this season (5.08).
• The Brewers rank 28th in the league for home runs this season (22).
• The Brewers rank 27th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.364).

Brewers vs Nationals Prediction 

Washington comes into this matchup after winning four of their last five games and they have scored 5+ in runs in three of their last five. The Nationals are 3-10 at home this year, while the Brewers are 6-6 on the road. Milwaukee has won three of their last four and they have scored 13 runs in two of their last three. The Brewers are starting Misiorowski, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, while Irvin has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four straight. I like how Washington is hitting the ball, but I don’t trust their pitching staff. Take the over here.

David Racey's Pick: Over 8.5