Sabres vs Bruins Prediction 5/1/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Sabres vs Bruins prediction for this NHL game on Friday, May 1st at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL playoff matchup.

Buffalo Sabres Betting Preview

The Buffalo Sabres are up 3-2 in this series after they won three of the first five games by scores of 4-3, 2-4, 3-1, 6-1, and 1-2 (OT). In game five, Buffalo led 1-0 in the first period, but they couldn’t find anymore offense and lost in overtime. The Sabres recorded 26 shots on goal, won 40.4% of the face-offs, and went 1-3 on the power play in the game. Buffalo got their lone goal from Dahlin, while Lyon stopped 27 out of 29 shots, which was a .931 save percentage. 

Prior to this series, Buffalo lost to the Stars by a score of 4-3, but did beat the Blackhawks by a score of 5-1 before that. The Sabres have won seven of their last ten games and they finished first in the Atlantic standings with 109 points. Buffalo scored 3.45 goals per game and they allowed 2.93 goals against per game, while also going 19.5% on the power play and 81.9% on the penalty kill this season. Tage Thompson led Buffalo with 40 goals and 41 assists, while Alex Tuch added 33 goals and 33 assists. The projected starting goalie for Buffalo is Alex Lyon, who was 20-10-4 with a 2.77 goals against average and a .907 save percentage this season. 

Boston Bruins Betting Preview

The Boston Bruins are down 2-3 in this series after they won game five by a score of 2-1 in overtime. Boston tied the game at one in the second period and they scored 9:14 into OT for the win. The Bruins recorded 29 shots on goal, won 59.6% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Boston got goals from Lindholm and Pastrnak, while Swayman stopped 25 out of 26 shots, which was a .962 save percentage. 

Prior to this series, Boston defeated the Devils by a score of 4-0 and the Blue Jackets by a score of 3-2. The Bruins have won four of their last seven games and they finished fourth in the Atlantic standings with 100 points. Boston scored 3.27 goals per game and they allowed 3.01 goals against per game, while also going 23.4% on the power play and 76.9% on the penalty kill this season. David Pastrnak led Boston with 29 goals and 71 assists, while Morgan Geekie added 39 goals and 29 assists. The projected starting goalie for Boston is Jeremy Swayman, who was 31-18-4 with a 2.71 goals against average and a .908 save percentage this season. 

Why the Boston Bruins will win

• The Bruins have won each of their last five games as home underdogs following an overtime win.
• The Sabres have lost eight of their last 13 games as road favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Bruins have covered the puck line in each of their last nine games as underdogs following an overtime win.
• The Sabres have failed to cover the puck line in nine of their last 10 games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Sabres have lost the second period in each of their last four games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents when leading after the first period.

Why the Buffalo Sabres will win

• The road team has won each of the Bruins’ last four games.
• The Bruins have lost four of their last five Game 6s of a playoff series.
• The Sabres have covered the puck line in 10 of their last 11 road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Bruins have lost the third period in each of their last six games against Atlantic Division opponents when leading after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Eight of the Bruins’ last nine games as underdogs following a road win have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Sabres’ last four road games after coming off overtime have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Six of the last seven games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last eight road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Bruins’ last seven home games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Boston Bruins Player Prop Facts

• Morgan Geekie has scored at least one goal in four of his last five appearances with the Bruins as home underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Henri Jokiharju has recorded an assist in each of his last four appearances with the Bruins as home underdogs.
• David Pastrnak has scored five goals against the Sabres this season – most against any opponent.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

• Alex Tuch has scored a goal in four of the Sabres’ last five road games against the Bruins.
• Joshua Norris has recorded an assist in each of his last six appearances with the Sabres as road favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Jason Zucker has scored three goals against the Bruins this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Boston Bruins rank T30th in the league in short handed goals this season (2).
• The Boston Bruins are one of only four teams to win a game when trailing by 3 or more goals after Period 1 this season.
• The Buffalo Sabres are one of seven teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.
• The Buffalo Sabres rank T2nd in the league in short handed goals this season (11).

Sabres vs Bruins Prediction 

Buffalo comes into this matchup looking to close out the series, but they lost game five and they will be on the road. The Sabres were 24-13-4 on the road this year, while the Bruins were 29-11-1 at home. Boston has scored two goals or fewer in three straight games and they really need their power play to step up. I do think Buffalo is the better team, but Boston finally has some momentum and I think they will win on home ice. Take the Bruins here.

David Racey's Pick: Bruins ML