Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction 5/1/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens meet Friday in NHL Game 6 at the Bell Centre. Here’s a Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Prediction. This article will include a Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Pick.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning need a win to save their season and force a game 7 on Sunday. The Lightning have lost 7 of their last 11 games.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are averaging 2.6 goals per game and are scoring on 17.4 percent of their power-play opportunities. Brandon Hagel leads Tampa Bay with 6 goals, Jake Guentzel has 6 assists, and Nikita Kucherov has 22 shots on goal. Defensively, the Tampa Bay Lightning are allowing 2.8 goals per game and are killing 76.2 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed 14 goals on 117 shots faced.

Montreal Canadiens Betting Preview

The Montreal Canadiens look to win their first playoff series since the 2020-21 season. The Canadiens have won 14 of their last 19 games.

The Montreal Canadiens are averaging 2.8 goals per game and are scoring on 23.8 percent of their power play opportunities. Juraj Slafkovsky leads Montreal with 3 goals, Nick Suzuki has 5 assists and Lane Hutson has 12 shots on goal. Defensively, the Montreal Canadiens are allowing 2.6 goals per game and are killing 82.6 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Jakub Dobes has given up 13 goals on 134 shots faced.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won 11 of their last 13 games as underdogs.
• The Lightning have lost four of their last six games as road favorites.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last 23 games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 11 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have lost the second period in six of their last seven games as road favorites following a loss.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won four of their last five night games following a home loss.
• The Canadiens have lost three of their last four home games following a road win.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five home games following a road win.
• The Lightning have won the third period in each of their last four games as favorites when trailing after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Seven of the Canadiens’ last eight night games against Atlantic Division opponents at the Bell Centre have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Lightning’s last four road games has gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Five of the last six games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Under 0.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in four of the Lightning’s last five road games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in seven of the Canadiens’ last eight games.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Cole Caufield has scored a goal in three of the Canadiens’ last four home playoff games.
• Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one assist in six of the Canadiens’ last seven games as underdogs.
• Cole Caufield ranks 2nd in the league for Goals (51) this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Hagel has scored at least one goal in each of his last five road appearances against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last four road games against the Canadiens.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks 2nd in the league for Points (130) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Montreal Canadiens rank T4th in the league in short-handed goals allowed this season (4).
• The Montreal Canadiens rank 4th in the league for Period 2 goals scored per game this season (1.20).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league for goals per game this season (3.49).

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Injury Report

The Lightning will be without Victor Hedman and Pontus Holmberg. Charle-Edouard D’Astous and Nick Paul are questionable.

The Habs will be without Patrik Laine and Noah Dobson.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction

The Lightning have the experience and the pedigree to win a game like this and there’s a long line of history of Canadian teams choking over the last 20 years. You can talk yourself into the Lightning and the cheap price. However, I said since game 1 that the Habs are being disrespected by oddsmakers in this series. This is a good Canadiens team that built on last year’s playoff appearance and has put themselves in the contender conversation. The Habs have also won 5 of the last 7 games against the Lightning, so they’re comfortable with this matchup. I love me some game 7s, but I’d need more bang for my buck to lean toward the Lightning. Pick a price, and give me the Habs on their home ice.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Montreal Canadiens