Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Prediction 9/9/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 9th at the PETCO Park in the second game of this series, with the Padres having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 79-65 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 44-25 home record, and are 61-77 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 4-3 home victory over the Reds, and have three consecutive wins. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games and are playing the Mets and the Rockies next. 

The Padres have a .252 batting average this season, .322 OBP and .387 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.66 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Louis Arraez leads the Padres with 158 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team both in RBI, with 84, and in home runs, with 23. 

Michael King (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 4-2 record, 2.81 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 72-72 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL Central. The Reds have a 32-38 road record and are 54-82 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-4 road defeat by the Padres, that ended their two-game winning streak. Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games and are playing the Cardinals and the Athletics next.

The Reds have a .247 batting average this season, .317 OBP and .392 slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with 151 hits, and in RBI, with 81, adding a team-high 19 home runs. Gavin Lux is the team’s best hitter with a .268 batting average.

Zack Littell (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 9-8 record, 3.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: September 9, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Michael King      Record this season: 4-2      ERA: 2.81
• Home Record: 3-2
• Last 5 against Reds: 2-0

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last six night games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have won seven of their last eight home games after going to extra innings.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 night games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Padres have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games after going to extra innings.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Tuesday games against the Reds at Petco Park.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games at Petco Park against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Littell      Record this season: 9-8      ERA: 3.81
• Road Record: 7-4
• Last 5 against Padres: 1-0

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Padres have lost three of their last four games as home favorites.
• The Reds have won three of their last four games as underdogs against the Padres following a road loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five home games.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Reds’ last four games.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as home favorites.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in four of their last five home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Reds’ last eight games following an extra innings loss have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Padres’ last four home games after going to extra innings have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last seven Tuesday games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Reds’ last five night games against National League opponents.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Merrill has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last eight games against NL Central opponents.
• Elias Diaz has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against the Reds.
• Gavin Sheets has hit a home run in two of his three previous appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Reds.
• Luis Arraez ranks T4th in the league in Hits (158) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Austin Hays has hit a home run in each of the Reds’ last two games as underdogs.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Reds as road underdogs.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T8th in the league in Steals (32) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.226).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1068).
• The Reds rank 7th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.237).
• The Reds rank T7th in the league for hits allowed this season (1139).

Reds vs Padres Prediction

The Padres are 4-2 in their last 6 head-to-head meetings against the Reds, and have won their last three meetings in San Diego. Over is 5-3-1 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Reds vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -190 home favorites. Kings takes the mound for the Padres and he is back after being a month in the IL. King has been elite this season and even better at home, with a 2.45 ERA, while on the flip side, Littell is coming into this matchup in poor form, having 11 earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched in his last three starts, having lost his last four starts. On top of that, San Diego has the best bullpen in baseball, so I expect them to dominate this game. Take the San Diego Padres and lay the juice at home.