Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 9/12/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays meet Friday in MLB action from Rogers Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Baltimore Orioles will send out Trevor Rogers for the start here and is 8-2 with a 1.51 ERA and 87 strikeouts this season. In his career, Rogers is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 8 strikeouts against Toronto. Chris Bassitt will start this one for Toronto and is 11-8 with a 3.97 ERA and 157 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against Baltimore, Bassitt is 2-3 with a 6.39 ERA and 30 strikeouts.

Baltimore Orioles Recap

The Baltimore Orioles come into this game looking to add on to their 3-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates last time out to improve to 69-77 this season. After this series, the Orioles will head on the road for a series against the Chicago White Sox.

Orioles Win 3 Straight And 8 Of Their Last 9

Adley Rutschman has 70 hits with 16 doubles, 9 homers and 29 RBIs. Jackson Holliday has 135 hits with 20 doubles, 2 triples, 17 homers and 54 RBIs. Gunnar Henderson has 140 hits with 31 doubles, 5 triples, 16 home runs and 61 RBIs with 22 stolen bases and 128 strikeouts while Holliday has a team-high 128 strikeouts as well this season. 

Toronto Blue Jays Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to add on to their 6-0 win over the Houston Astros last time out to sit at 84-62 this season. After this series, the Blue Jays will head on the road for a series against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Blue Jays Pushing For Another Series-Opening Win

George Springer has 127 hits and Bo Bichette has 181 hits with Springer adding 27 home runs, a triple, 21 doubles and 72 RBIs while Bichette has 44 doubles, 18 home runs and 93 RBIs. Andres Gimenez has added 60 hits with 8 doubles and 7 home runs and 27 RBIs this season along with 12 stolen bases. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also has 23 homers, 33 doubles and 79 RBIs while Springer also has a .301 batting average and 91 strikeouts up to this point in the year. Addison Barger’s chipped in 27 doubles with 19 home runs and 65 RBIs and Ernie Clement’s added 28 doubles as part of his 132 hits this season.

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends: September 12, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Chris Bassitt      Record this season: 11-8      ERA: 3.97
• Home Record: 8-0
• Last 5 against Orioles: 2-3

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Orioles have lost each of their last six night games against American League opponents.
• The Blue Jays have won six of their last seven home games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in six of their last seven home games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games.
• The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Trevor Rogers      Record this season: 8-2      ERA: 1.51
• Road Record: 5-1
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 0-1

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last 10 games as favorites against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Orioles have won six of their last seven games as underdogs.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 13 games as favorites against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Orioles have covered the run line each of their last nine road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road games against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Blue Jays’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Orioles’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last eight Friday games at Rogers Centre.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six games between the Orioles and Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Chris Bassitt has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine home appearances against AL East opponents.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 21 appearances with the Blue Jays as home favorites against AL opponents.
• Ernie Clement has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against AL East opponents.
• Daulton Varsho has hit at least one home run in three of his last four home appearances against AL East opponents.
• Chris Bassitt has recorded a win in four of his five previous home appearances against the Orioles.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.393) this season.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Rogers has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 road appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Trevor Rogers has recorded a win in five of his last six road appearances.
• Dylan Carlson has recorded a Double in each of his last four appearances against AL East opponents.
• Tyler O’Neill has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances in night games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1337).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.268).
• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for home runs allowed this season (197).
• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for hits allowed this season (1297).

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

I’m on the under here. Toronto really struggled to find early offense in that series against Houston, doing a lot of damage in the later innings against the Astros, but this is an Orioles bullpen that’s been the best in baseball in September so far, and Trevor Rogers could have a strong case to be made as Baltimore’s staff ace so far this season. On the other side, Bassitt’s been outstanding at home this season and the Orioles have had some issues as of late hitting against right-handed pitching. I’ll side with the under in this one.