Pick details
Madrid Open Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste
02:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Aryna Sabalenka -3333 / Hailey Baptiste +1000
Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste Preview
Aryna Sabalenka beat four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka in the last round. Sabalenka came from a set down to see of the Japanese star to reach the last eight of the Madrid Open for the fourth straight year. The match took 30 games to decide. Osaka won a competitive first set in a tiebreak, which she dominated to take it 7-1. But Sabalenka, who has only lost one match this season, responded even after going down a break in the second set. She turned it around to clinch the second set 6-3. With momentum firmly on her side, Sabalenka broke Osaka’s serve twice in the final set to prevail. The win is her 26th of the season and she remains in pursuit of a fourth title in Madrid. Before this round, Sabalenka beat Peyton Stearns and Jaqueline Cristian without losing a set.
Hailey Baptiste is coming off a massive win over World No. 12 Belinda Bencic. In a week where Baptiste earned a top 10 win over Jasmine Paolini, she backed it up by knocking out the Swiss Olympic gold medalist. Baptiste won an incredible match in nearly three hours. Despite squandering six match points in a dramatic second set tiebreak, the American regained her composure to break Bencic in the final set and prevail 6-1, 6-7, 6-3 in two hours and 44 minutes.
In the victory, Baptiste hit 8 aces and 6 double faults. She landed 62% of first serves in play and won 75% of first serve points (52/69). Baptiste won 55% of second serve points (23/42) and saved seven of eight break points in the match. Before this round, Baptiste had beaten Kaitlin Quevedo and Jasmine Paolini in straight sets.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste Head-To-Head
Sabalenka and Baptiste have met once on the WTA level. Incidentally, it was also in a quarterfinal of a WTA 1000 at the Miami Open back in March. Sabalenka won in straight sets.Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste Prediction
Baptiste is having an incredible tournament with massive upsets over Paolini and Bencic. She felt that she could have won against Sabalenka back in Miami, where she lost 6-4, 6-4. But I don’t expect this one to be as close, though. Sabalenka is smacking the ball with power and precision and she’s having a blinder of a season. Had it not been for the Australian Open final loss, we could be talking of an undefeated streak in 2026 at this point. It tells you just how mesmerising she’s been on the court.
Nur Said's Pick: Sabalenka -5.5 games handicap
