Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction 4/28/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Nationals vs Mets Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, April 28th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 9-19 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL East. They have a 5-10 home record and are coming off a 0-3 loss at home against the Rockies. Their previous three games were a 1-3 and a 3-4 loss at home against the Rockies, and a 10-8 win at home against the Twins.

The Mets have a .226 batting average this season, .288 OBP and .337 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Francisco Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .240 batting average, also adding a team‑high 4 home runs. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 12.

Clay Holmes (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 2-2 record, 2.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 13-16 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL East. They have a 10-6 away record and are coming off a 2-1 win on the road against the White Sox. Their previous three games were a 6-3 win and a 4-5 loss on the road against the White Sox, and a 2-7 loss at home against the Braves.

The Nationals have a .243 batting average this season, .325 OBP and .395 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 5.24 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Daylen Lile is the team’s best hitter with a .278 batting average. CJ Abrams leads the team in RBI with 21, and James Wood adds a team‑high 10 home runs.

Zack Littell (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has a 0-3 record, 7.56 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets Betting Trends: April 28, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Clay Holmes      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 2.10
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Nationals: 1-1

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last seven night games against the Nationals following a loss.
• The Nationals have lost eight of their last nine night games against the Mets following a win.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in three of their last four games against the Nationals following a home loss.
• The Mets have won the first inning in each of their last four night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last four night games.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in five of their last six night games at Citi Field against NL East opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Littell      Record this season: 0-3      ERA: 7.56
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Mets: 0-1

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last 11 games against National League opponents.
• The underdogs have won nine of the Mets’ last 11 games at Citi Field.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight home games following a loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 12 of the Mets’ last 13 games at Citi Field.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games against the Mets.
• The Nationals have won the first inning in each of their last four games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five home games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Mets’ last eight games as favorites against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Nationals’ last four night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Nationals’ last eight games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Mets’ last eight night games against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against the Nationals after not playing the previous day.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 20 games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Clay Holmes ranks T8th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.10) this season.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• CJ Abrams has recorded at least one hit in each of the Nationals’ last 10 road games against NL opponents.
• Joey Wiemer has hit a home run in three of his last six appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Nasim Nunez ranks 1st in the league in Steals (13) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (92).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for RBIs this season (86).
• The Nationals rank 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (48).
• The Nationals rank T2nd in the league for steals this season (31).

Nationals vs Mets Prediction

The Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Mets and are 2-1 in their last three visits in New York.

In this Nationals vs Mets Prediction, the Mets are coming as -177 home favorites. The Mets have been terrible this season and after winning back-to-back games against the Twins, they have lost three straight since then, having scored just one total run in their last two games. They have the pitching advantage today, as Clay Holmes goes up against Zack Littell, who has been torched in his last two starts, having given up 14 total runs. The Mets have a superior bullpen to come after Holmes so this sets up as a nice bounce-back spot at home. Take the Mets on the moneyline in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: New York Mets ML