Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Prediction 1/23/25 Australian Open Tennis Picks

In the victory, Swiatek recorded 22 winners and 20 unforced errors. That included one ace and two double faults.

The Pole landed 53% of first serves in play but won a healthy 82% of first serve points (23/28).

Swiatek won 48% of second serve points (12/25) and saved the one break point she faced in the match.

Swiatek won 54% of return points (32/59) and 56% of net points (5/9). She converted five of nine break points on Navarro's serve.

Swiatek lost her previous semifinal in Melbourne to an American in Danielle Collins. 

She has made the final of a hard-court Grand Slam once, and that was at the 2022 US Open when she won the tournament.

Madison Keys Preview

Madison Keys beat Elina Svitolina to make the semis ensuring there will be at least one American in the final four of the 2025 Australian Open.

Keys won a thrilling three-set match 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 in an hour and 54 minutes. In the victory, Keys hammered 49 winners and 41 unforced errors. That included six aces and four double faults.

Keys landed 60% of first serves in play and won 77% of first serve points (40/52).  She won 51% of second serve points (18/35) and saved one of two break points. 

Keys won 35% of return points (32/92) and 88% of net points (23/26). She converted two of nine break points.

This is the third time Keys has reached the semifinal in Melbourne. She lost her previous two to eventual champions of the tournament (Serena in 2015 and Barty in 2022).

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Head-To-Head

• Swiatek and Keys have met five times on the WTA Tour.

• Swiatek leads Keys 4-1 in the head-to-head although three of those wins were on clay.

• On hard courts, Swiatek and Keys are tied at 1-1.

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Prediction

Swiatek is the only player yet to concede a set at this year's Australian Open. In fact, her dominance is highlighted in how she decimated her opponents for the loss of only a few games. She has won three 6-1 and 6-0 sets and has not given away more than four games in a set during the fortnight. Her ability to shrink the court makes her an intimidating presence, but if anything, Keys possesses the explosive firepower and attacking mindset to hit through Swiatek.

While Keys does have a pretty decent record for a non-Slam winner in these events, I have very little confidence in her ability to perform in these sorts of matches against the cream of the crop. So, I am happily calling a top-two showdown for the Australian Open women's title this weekend.