Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Prediction 1/23/25 Australian Open Tennis Picks

Australian Open Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa

Game Date: Thursday, January 23, 2025

Betting Odds: Aryna Sabalenka -400 / Paula Badosa +325 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: ESPN

Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa meet in the semifinal of the 2025 Australian Open on Thursday, January 23, 2025. Here's our Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa prediction. This preview also includes an Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa pick.

 

Aryna Sabalenka Preview

 

Aryna Sabalenka is coming off a three-set win over Russia's Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. The match took 25 games to decide and lasted an hour and 55 minutes.

In the victory, Sabalenka fired 29 winners and 27 unforced errors. That included three aces and three double faults.

Sabalenka landed 69% of first serves in play and won 65% of first serve points (34/52). She won 43% of second serve points (10/23) and saved three of eight break points.

Sabalenka won 47% of return points (37/79) and 83% of net points (5/6). She broke Pavlyuchenkova's serve six times from eight opportunities.

This was the first time since the 2023 final that Sabalenka had lost a set at the Australian Open. 

This is also Sabalenka's 10th appearance in a Grand Slam semifinal. She has gone on to make the final on four occasions, winning three titles and losing once.

 

Paula Badosa Preview

 

Paula Badosa defeated third seed Coco Gauff in straight sets in the biggest shock of the tournament thus far. The win puts Badosa in her first Grand Slam semifinal against her good friend Sabalenka.

Badosa needed an hour and 44 minutes to inflict the first defeat of Gauff's 2025 season in a match that took 22 games to decide.

In the victory, Badosa compiled 15 winners and 23 unforced errors which included three aces and two double faults.

Badosa landed 57% of first serves in play and won 64% of first serve points (23/36). The Spaniard won 63% of second serve points (17/27) and saved one of three break points.

Badosa won 44% of return points (33/86) and 67% of net points (6/9). She broke Gauff four times from 10 opportunities.

Badosa was 0-2 in her two previous Grand Slam quarterfinals and is now enjoying her best-ever start to a season.

 

Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Head-To-Head

 

• Sabalenka and Badosa have met seven times on the WTA Tour

• Sabalenka leads Badosa 5-2 in the head-to-head.

• Badosa surprisingly leads on hard courts 2-1 although the last of those victories was at the 2021 WTA Finals.

• Sabalenka beat Badosa 7-5, 6-1 in their last match at the 2024 French Open third round.

 

Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Prediction

 

I thought Badosa was good enough to steal a set from Gauff, but she did remarkably well to sustain her level, especially in hitting above 60% of second-serve points to seal the upset. Because Badosa will be on the defensive here against a rampaging Sabalenka, it's crucial she hits her spots on serve to ease the pressure. That's the kind of lift-off she will need if she is to reach her first Grand Slam final.

Sabalenka talked about scouring for solutions against Pavlyuhenkova when she looked in serious trouble at the start of the third set. She reminded us of her problem-solving skills and that she's very much capable of going to plan B. We saw the regular use of variety, including one sumptuous sliced winner. Sabalenka is extremely short here and I'm leaning with the overs. Badosa is likely to step again despite this being a very unusual moment for her and this match will be competitive.

 

Nur’s Pick Over 20.5 games in the match

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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