Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction 9/21/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars meet in week 3 NFL action from EverBank Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars prediction.

Houston Texans Recap

The Houston Texans come into this game looking to rebound from their 20-19 loss at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last time out to sit at 0-2 on the year. After this game, the Texans will head home for another division game against the Tennessee Titans.

Texans Searching For First W

C.J. Stroud has thrown for 395 yards, a touchdown and an interception on 62.7% passing while Nick Chubb has rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown. Nico Collins leads Houston’s receivers with 6 grabs for 77 yards and a touchdown as well on the year. On defense, Henry To’oTo’o and Azeez Al-Shaair each have 17 total tackles with Al-Shahir logging a team-high 11 solo tackles. Derek Stingley Jr. and Will Anderson Jr. each have a pair of sacks as well this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars Recap

The Jacksonville Jaguars come into this game looking to rebound from their 31-27 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last time out to sit at 1-1 on the year. After this game, the Jaguars will head on the road for a game against the San Francisco 49ers.

Jaguars Looking For Bounce Back

Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 449 yards, 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 58.9% passing while Travis Etienne Jr. leads the Jaguars on the ground with 214 rushing yards. Dyami Brown leads the Jaguars’ receiving group with 8 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown and Travis Hunter has a team-high 9 receptions so far this season. On defense, Foyesade Oluokun has a team-high 17 total tackles while Jacksonville’s defense as a whole has combined for 4 sacks and 5 interceptions so far this season.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends: Week 3

Why the Jacksonville Jaguars will win

• The home team has won each of the Jaguars’ last five games.
• The Texans have lost 15 of their last 16 games as underdogs when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 10 games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last four games against AFC South opponents.
• The Jaguars have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games following a loss.
• The Texans have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games against AFC opponents.
• The home team has won the first half in six of the Jaguars’ last seven games.

Why the Houston Texans will win

• The Texans have won each of their last eight games as road underdogs against AFC South opponents.
• The Jaguars have lost each of their last seven September games against AFC opponents.
• The Texans have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as road underdogs against AFC South opponents.
• The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six September home games against AFC opponents.
• The Texans have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven games following a home loss.
• The Jaguars have lost the first quarter in each of their last four games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Texans have won the first half in each of their last nine games following a home loss.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Jaguars’ last eight games at EverBank Stadium following a loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Texans’ last five games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of the last five Sunday games at EverBank Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts

• Tim Patrick has scored a touchdown in four of his last five appearances on the East Coast.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Jaguars’ last four games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 262+ passing yards in each of the Jaguars’ last four games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Travis Etienne has recorded 75+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Jaguars’ last three home games.
• Travis Etienne has recorded 17+ receiving yards in nine of the Jaguars’ last 10 games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 17+ rushing yards in each of the Jaguars’ last three games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• Heading into Week 3, Travis Etienne has recorded the longest touchdown reception of the season (71 vs Panthers, Week 1).

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

• Nick Chubb has scored two or more touchdowns in three of his last four September appearances with his team as an underdog against AFC opponents.
• Nico Collins has recorded 80+ receiving yards in seven of his last eight appearances against AFC South opponents.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 234+ passing yards in each of the Texans’ last five September games against AFC opponents.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 24+ completions in four of the Texans’ last five September games against AFC opponents.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 72+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his seven previous appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Joe Mixon has scored at least one touchdown in each of his six previous appearances against the Jaguars.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 60+ rushing yards in each of his last 12 September appearances against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 3, Ka’imi Fairbairn ranks T1st in the NFL in 50+ yard field goals made (3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Jaguars – one different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Jaguars – one different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Heading into Week 3, the Texans rank 32nd in the NFL in points per game (14.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 3, the Texans rank 32nd in the NFL in 3rd down percentage (22.2%) this season.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

I’m on the Texans here. The Texans are a better team than their 0-2 start and in my opinion, they’re a bit unlucky to be sitting at 0-2 on the year. That being said, the offense has struggled out of the gate, but the Jaguars have had issues against this Texans’ defense for the better part of the last few seasons. I think the dog is barking here. Give me the Texans in this one.