St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Prediction 4/21/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cardinals vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, April 21st in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 11-12 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL East. They have a 9-5 home record and are coming off a 5-3 home win against the Cardinals. Their previous three games were a 5-3 home win, a 2-5 and a 5-7 home loss against the Brewers.

The Marlins have a .254 batting average this season, .330 OBP and .391 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Xavier Edwards is the team’s best hitter with a .341 batting average. Liam Hicks leads the team in RBI with 21, also adding a team‑high 4 home runs.

Chris Paddack (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 0-3 record, 5.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

St. Louis Cardinals Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals have a 13-9 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the NL Central. They have a 6-4 away record and are coming off a 3-5 road loss against the Marlins. They won their previous three games on the road against the Astros by scores of 7-5, 7-5, and 9-4.

The Cardinals have a .230 batting average this season, .325 OBP and .373 Slugging percentage. St. Louis’ pitching staff has a 4.86 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Jordan Walker is the team’s best hitter with a .306 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 16 and adding a team‑high 8 home runs.

Dustin May (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals, and he has a 2-2 record, 6.98 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: April 21, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack      Record this season: 0-3      ERA: 5.59
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Cardinals: 1-1

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last five games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Cardinals have lost six of their last eight road games against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in four of their last five home games after playing the previous day.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games as road underdogs against National League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Dustin May      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 6.98
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Marlins: 2-1

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last seven Tuesday night games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Cardinals have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 15 Tuesday night games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in each of their last six night games at LoanDepot Park following a loss.
• The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Cardinals’ last eight games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Three of the Marlins’ last four night games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Marlins’ last eight night games at LoanDepot Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Cardinals’ last five night games.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in eight of his last 21 home appearances.
• Chris Paddack has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his five previous appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Agustin Ramirez has recorded a hit in each of the Marlins’ last seven night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Xavier Edwards ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.341) this season.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Dustin May has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Lars Nootbaar has hit a home run in three of his last four Tuesday appearances against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Lars Nootbaar has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Jordan Walker ranks T3rd in the league in Home Runs (8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for triples this season (8).
• The Marlins rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (26).
• The Cardinals rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (140).
• The Cardinals rank T27th in the league for doubles this season (28).

Cardinals vs Marlins Prediction

The Marlins are 6-3 in their last 9 meetings against the Cardinals and are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings in Miami.

In this Cardinals vs Marlins Prediction, the Marlins are coming as -112 home favorites. Miami won yesterday’s game and snapped St. Louis’ five-game winning streak, but I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup. They both have a 12.57 ERA combined and 1.45+ WHIP each and the Cardinals are 26th in bullpen ERA. Both teams also are 12-4 to the over in their last 16 games combined, so I expect another high-scoring affair. Take the over 8.5 in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Over 8.5