San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction 9/16/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Mets Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 16th at the Citi Field in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 77-73 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL East. The Mets have a 46-29 home record and are 70-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 5-2 home victory over the Rangers, that ended their 8-game losing streak. Over is 4-2 in their last 6 games and are playing the Cubs and the Nationals next.

The Mets have a .249 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .426 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.  Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with 157 hits, while Pete Alonso leads the team in batting average with .266. He also adds a team-high 117 RBI, while Juan Soto adds team-high 40 home runs.

Clay Holmes (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 11-8 record, 3.75 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have an 82-68 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 35-40 road record, and are 63-81 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 2-4 home defeat by the Reds, that ended their three-game winning streak. Under is 4-1 in their last 5 games and are playing the White Sox and the Brewers next. 

The Padres have a .252 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .388 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.64 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Louis Arraez leads the Padres with 165 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .286 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team both in RBI, with 88, and in home runs, with 25. 

Michael King (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 4-2 record, 2.87 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

San Diego Padres @ New York Mets Betting Trends: September 16, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Clay Holmes      Record this season: 11-8      ERA: 3.75
• Home Record: 5-2
• Last 5 against Padres: 1-1

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Padres have lost eight of their last nine road games against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have won eight of their last nine home games after going to extra innings.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five road games against the Mets following a win.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven games as road underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Michael King      Record this season: 4-2      ERA: 2.87
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Mets: 0-1

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last six games against National League opponents.
• The underdogs have won four of the Mets’ last five games at Citi Field.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight night games against the Padres at Citi Field following a win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last seven games as favorites against the Padres have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Padres’ last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last eight Tuesday games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last four home games against National League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit at least one home run in four of his last five home appearances against the Padres.
• Juan Soto has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against the Padres.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 12 games as home favorites.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.396) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last four games.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded a Double in four of the Padres’ last five road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Luis Arraez ranks T4th in the league in Hits (165) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (135).
• The Mets rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (525).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.225).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1109).

Padres vs Mets Prediction

The Padres have won their last four meetings against the Mets, but the Mets have won their last three meetings in New York. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Padres vs Mets Prediction, the Mets are coming as -115 home favorites. The Mets have been playing pretty bad baseball lately, and now are facing a Padres team that fights with the Dodgers for the first place of the NL West, and are putting one of their best pitchers on the mound, in Michael King. San Diego has the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball, and are better against right-handed pitching, so I like them as small road dogs in this spot. Take the San Diego Padres on the moneyline on the road.