Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 9/26/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Atlanta Braves meet Friday in MLB action from Truist Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send out Mitch Keller for the start here and Keller is 6-15 with a 4.22 ERA and 144 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against Atlanta, Keller is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 23 strikeouts. Joey Wentz will get the nod for the Braves here and is 5-6 with a 5.46 ERA and 89 strikeouts this season. This will be Wentz’s first career start against Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to bounce back from their 2-1 loss at the hands of Cincinnati last time out to fall to 69-90 this season. 

Pirates Have Four-Game Win Streak Snapped

Bryan Reynolds has 140 hits with 37 doubles, 16 home runs and 73 RBIs while also posting 171 strikeouts so far this season. Oneil Cruz has posted a team-high 20 home runs and 61 RBIs with 38 stolen bases. Cruz also has 173 strikeouts as well this season. Tommy Pham has 17 doubles and Andrew McCutchen has 112 hits with 22 doubles as well this season.

Atlanta Braves Recap

The Atlanta Braves come into this game looking to bounce back from their 4-3 loss at the hands of the Washington Nationals last time out to drop to 75-83 this season. 

Braves Have Win Streak Snapped

Austin Riley has 108 hits including 16 home runs, 54 RBIs and 20 doubles so far this season. Ozzie Albies has 145 hits with 23 doubles, 16 home runs and 74 RBIs in addition to 14 stolen bases and Matt Olson has 167 hits with 40 doubles, 28 home runs and 93 RBIs of his own. Marcell Ozuna also has 111 hits with 21 home runs and 67 RBIs. Michael Harris II also has 148 hits with 25 doubles, 6 triples, 19 home runs and 85 RBIs and 20 stolen bases as well and Nick Allen has 8 stolen bases as well this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves Betting Trends: September 26, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Joey Wentz      Record this season: 5-6      ERA: 5.46
• Home Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Pirates: 0-0

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Braves have won 10 of their last 11 games.
• The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight night games following a loss.
• The Braves have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six road games against NL East opponents.
• The Pirates have lost the first inning in each of their last three games at Truist Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Braves have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 10 night games against the Pirates at Truist Park.
• The Braves have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games against the Pirates at Truist Park.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller      Record this season: 6-15      ERA: 4.22
• Road Record: 3-5
• Last 5 against Braves: 1-3

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have lost nine of their last 11 games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last eight games against the Braves following a loss.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in 17 of their last 19 games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight Friday games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last six games between the Pirates and Braves have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Pirates’ last eight games as underdogs against the Braves have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Pirates and Braves.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last five night games at Truist Park.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit a home run in four of the Braves’ last five night games.
• Austin Riley has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded a Double in four of his five previous appearances against the Pirates after not playing the previous day.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in four of the Pirates’ last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Mitch Keller has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances with the Pirates as road underdogs.
• Jared Triolo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded a Double in each of the Pirates’ last three games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Mitch Keller has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against NL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Braves rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (566).
• The Braves rank 26th in the league for doubles this season (238).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (570).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (113).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction

I’m siding with Atlanta in this one. Two teams with nothing to play for but pride and contract incentives/obligations here, but I think the Braves are not only the better team but I think Joey Wentz is the better starting option. Mitch Keller’s had issues this season and the Braves have been hitting righties well as of late while the Pirates have had issues of their own against lefties and issues on the road for much of the season. Give me Atlanta here.