Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction 7/29/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins meet Wednesday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Philadelphia Phillies will send out Jesus Luzardo here and Luzardo is 9-5 with a 3.31 ERA and 152 strikeouts this season. Ryan Gusto will start for the Marlins and is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 31 strikeouts this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to bounce back from a 1-0 loss at the hands of the Marlins on Tuesday to sit at 57-51 this season. After this series, the Phillies will head on the road for a series against the Baltimore Orioles.

Phillies Lose 6 Of Last 7

Kyle Schwarber has 96 hits with 12 doubles, 33 home runs and 62 RBIs. Brandon Marsh has 106 hits with 15 doubles, 16 home runs and 47 RBIs while Justin Crawford also has 72 hits with 12 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs and 22 RBIs. Trea Turner has 103 hits with 18 doubles, 14 home runs and 41 RBIs and Bryce Harper’s added 94 hits with 20 doubles, 21 home runs and 61 RBIs this season.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Phillies on Tuesday to climb to 54-54 this season. After this series, the Marlins will head on the road for a series against the New York Mets.

Marlins Win Back-To-Back Games

Xavier Edwards has 112 hits with 14 doubles, 6 triples, 6 home runs and 37 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 133 hits with 27 doubles, 6 triples, 9 homers and 47 RBIs and Liam Hicks has added 91 hits with 9 doubles, 14 home runs and 60 RBIs. Connor Norby has 41 hits with 12 doubles, 4 home runs and 16 RBIs and Owen Caissie has 52 hits with 12 doubles, 12 homers and 50 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 67 hits with 11 doubles, 3 triples, 5 home runs and 25 RBIs this season. Kyle Stowers has also chipped in 71 hits with 18 doubles, 3 triples, 13 home runs and 45 RBIs.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: July 29, 2026

 

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ryan Gusto      Record this season: 0-2      ERA: 4.50
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Phillies: 0-1

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last 10 games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last 11 day games following a win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven day games against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last five home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo      Record this season: 9-5      ERA: 3.31
• Road Record: 6-0
• Last 5 against Marlins: 4-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last six day games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have won each of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 games after playing the previous day.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last four games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four home day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Twelve of the Marlins’ last 14 games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites against the Marlins have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in 13 of the Marlins’ last 14 games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last four games.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last nine games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Griffin Conine has hit a home run in each of the Marlins’ last three games as home underdogs.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (136) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances against the Marlins.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded nine or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against the Marlins.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances with the Phillies as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• Derek Hill has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances against former teams.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank T1st in the league for triples this season (25).
• The Marlins rank T1st in the league for triples this season (25).
• The Phillies rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).
• The Phillies rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

I’m on the Phillies in this one. I just think that Philadelphia has a huge edge in starting pitching in this game and it’s hard for me to get behind the Marlins in what looks to be a bit of a bullpen game. I think the Phillies are better than what they’ve shown for much of this series and I look for another strong showing from Luzardo on the way to a Phillies win.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Philadelphia -175