Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction MLB Picks 10/1/24

The Detroit Tigers and the Houston Astros meet Tuesday in MLB Wild Card playoffs action from Minute Maid Park. Here’s a Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Tigers vs Astros pick. We will examine:

The Detroit Tigers’ recent form and player performance

The Houston Astros’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Detroit Tigers

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Houston Astros

Recent betting trends in games played between Tigers and Astros

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Tigers vs Astros game

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Tigers managed to snag the final Wild Card spot this year with an 86-76 record. Detroit finished just one game ahead of the Seattle Mariners (85-77) and even with the Kansas City Royals. The Tigers’ final series against the White Sox was a rough one though, as Detroit lost the two weekend games 4-0 and 9-5.

In the starter slot for the Tuesday opener, the Tigers are going with Tarik Skubal. This year Skubal went 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 31 starts. Over his career, Skubal is 41-31 with a 3.37 ERA in 106 games (103 starts).

Houston Astros Betting Preview

Over on the Astros’ side, they managed to secure the third-best record in the American League this year at 88-73. The Astros also won the American League West Division by 3.5 games over Seattle. Houston finished four games behind the Cleveland Guardians (92-69), who they played to finish off the season. The Astros won both those matchups 5-2 and 4-3. In the last two weeks, the Astros lost the series to the Padres and Mariners.

As a starter for Game 1, the Astros are sending out Framber Valdez. In 2024 Valdez went 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA in 28 starts. Over 157 career games (135 starts) Valdez is 68-41 with a 3.30 ERA.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros’ last four-day playoff games against AL Central opponents has gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Tigers’ last three road playoff games against AL West opponents has gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Tigers’ last 11-day games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last five games as favorites against AL Central opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Chas McCormick has recorded a Single in seven of his last eight home playoff appearances.
• Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances against the Tigers.
• Victor Caratini has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Ben Gamel has scored a run in each of his last seven home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Astros’ last eight playoff games at Minute Maid Park.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances in day games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Kerry Carpenter has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Kerry Carpenter has recorded at least one total base in 13 of his last 14 appearances against AL West opponents.
• Colt Keith has recorded at least one Single in each of his last five road appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Javier Baez has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Kerry Carpenter has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances with the Tigers as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
• Spencer Torkelson has scored at least one run in 12 of his last 14 appearances with the Tigers as road underdogs against AL West opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Houston Astros rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (1176).
• The Houston Astros are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank in the top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
• The Detroit Tigers rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (416).
• The Detroit Tigers rank 4th in the league for ERA this season (3.61).

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction

I’m going to take a stab at the Tigers here. Skubal is on a nice run lately. He finished off September with just two earned in 18.0 combined innings over his last three starts. Skubal went 2-0 in that trio. As for Valdez, he’s 1-1 in his last three with five earned in 19.0 total innings. Three of those earned runs came in his last outing, a win over Seattle.

Detroit gave up a combined 13 runs over their final two games. Making matters worse, those games were losses to the lowly White Sox. However, the Tigers came into that series hot and won six straight games to help vault the team into the playoffs. Houston has won three of their last four games (scoring four or more runs in each), so Detroit will need to be sharp on both sides during this series. I think the Tigers have a legitimate shot at stealing an opener road win.