Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction MLB Picks 10/1/24

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles were 91-71 during the regular season and they finished in the first wild-card spot in the AL. Baltimore wasn’t great in the month of September, but they have won five of their last six games. The Orioles are coming off of a series sweep against Minnesota and they won two out of three against the Yankees prior to that. The last series the Orioles lost was against the Tigers.

The Baltimore pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average. The Orioles' offense has scored 786 runs with a .250 batting average and a .315 on-base percentage. Gunnar Henderson is batting .281 with 37 home runs and 92 RBIs for the Orioles this season.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Kansas City is Cole Ragans, who is 11-9 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 186.1 innings pitched this season. Ragans has allowed a total of three earned runs in his last four starts (25.0 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Corbin Burnes, who is 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 194.1 innings pitched this year. Burnes has allowed a total of four earned runs in his last five starts (30.0 IP). 

Why the Orioles will beat the Royals

• The Royals have lost each of their last seven road games against the Orioles following a road win.
• The Orioles have won seven of their last eight home games against the Royals.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11-day games against AL Central opponents following a road win.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games against the Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards following a win.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Royals' last eight road games have gone UNDER the total run line.
• Five of the Orioles' last six home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Orioles' last five-day games against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Royals' last three-day games against American League opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Corbin Burnes has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances with the Orioles as favorites against AL Central opponents.
• Gunnar Henderson has scored at least one run in 11 of the Orioles' last 12 games against AL Central opponents at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
• Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one Single in each of the Orioles' last six games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Corbin Burnes has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last nine Tuesday appearances.
• Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Orioles' last 12 games as home favorites against AL Central opponents.
• Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one total base in each of the Orioles' last 12 games against AL Central opponents at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
• James McCann has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against the Royals after not playing the previous day.
• James McCann has hit at least one home run in each of his last two appearances against AL Central opponents.
• Corbin Burnes ranks T7th in the league for Wins (15) this season.

Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts

• Tommy Pham has hit a home run in each of his last two road playoff appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Salvador Perez has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Royals' last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has scored a run in five of the Royals' last six games against AL opponents.
• Salvador Perez has recorded at least one Single in each of the Royals' last eight road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Yuli Gurriel has recorded a hit in each of his last 11 playoff appearances against AL East opponents.
• Maikel Garcia has recorded at least one total base in each of the Royals' last 11 games as underdogs against the Orioles.
• Bobby Witt Jr. ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.588) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Baltimore Orioles rank 4th in the league for runs scored this season (786).
• The Baltimore Orioles rank T4th in the league for triples this season (33).
• The Kansas City Royals rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (35).
• The Kansas City Royals rank 28th in the league for walks this season (429).

Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction 

These two teams come into this series trending in different directions, but anything can happen in a three-game series. Baltimore finished the regular season with two very good series wins against the Yankees and Twins, while the Royals really scuffled down the stretch. Baltimore is 44-37 at home this year, while Kansas City is just 41-40 on the road. Both of these starting pitchers have been very good, but I have to give the edge to Burnes and the Orioles, especially with how the Royals have been hitting the ball. Take Baltimore here.