Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 4/22/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Rays Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, April 22nd in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 12-11 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the AL East. They have a 4-4 home record and are coming off a 6-12 home loss against the Reds. Their previous three games were a 1-6 home loss against the Reds, and a 3-6 road loss and an 8-7 road win against the Pirates.

The Rays have a .255 batting average this season, .331 OBP and .376 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 4.86 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Chandler Simpson is the team’s best hitter with a .323 batting average. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with 19, and Junior Caminero adds a team‑high 5 home runs.

Nick Martinez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 0-1 record, 2.45 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 16-8 record this season and are sitting in the first place of the NL Central. They have a 10-2 away record and are coming off a 12-6 road win against the Rays. Their previous three games were a 6-1 road win against the Rays, and a 7-4 and a 5-4 road win against the Twins.

The Reds have a .207 batting average this season, .303 OBP and .350 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 3.47 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Sal Stewart is the team’s best hitter with a .299 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 24. Elly De La Cruz adds a team‑high 8 home runs.

Brandon Williamson (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 2-1 record, 4.35 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: April 22, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 2.45
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Reds: 1-0

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last eight day games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Reds have lost each of their last six Wednesday games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line each of their last six Wednesday games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last five home day games.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last three home day games.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in each of their last three day games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Williamson      Record this season: 2-1      ERA: 4.35
• Road Record: 2-0
• Last 5 against Rays: –

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last seven games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Rays have lost eight of their last nine games as home favorites.
• The Reds have covered the run line each of their last nine road games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Wednesday home games against National League opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games.
• The Rays have lost the first inning in each of their last four games.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays’ last seven day games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Reds’ last four games as underdogs against the Rays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Reds’ last eight games as underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last four games.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last five games as favorites against the Reds.
• Gavin Lux has recorded at least one hit in each of his last five appearances.
• Chandler Simpson ranks T3rd in the league in Hits (30) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in five of the Reds’ last nine day games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 18 road games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Sal Stewart ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.632) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (172).
• The Rays rank T3rd in the league for triples this season (4).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for hits this season (164).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.207).

Reds vs Rays Prediction

The Reds have won their last five meetings against the Rays and both teams are 3-2 in their last 5 visits in Tampa.

In this Reds vs Rays Prediction, the Rays are coming as -135 home favorites. The Reds have been red hot with a 7-1 record in their last 8 games, while the Rays have dropped three straight and have 24 earned runs in that span, but they don’t have the pitching advantage today as it might seem on paper. Brandon Williamson has only one earned run in his two road starts for the Reds, who have the best bullpen currently in baseball, as opposed to the Rays who rank 27th in bullpen ERA. On top of that, the Rays are weaker against left-handed pitching, so I like the Reds as road dogs in this spot. Take the Reds and the plus money.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML