Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction MLB Picks 10/2/24

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros lost game one in this series and they only managed one run in the game, so they are facing elimination here. Houston really struggled to get anything going against Skubal on Tuesday, but they did leave the bases loaded in the ninth inning. Prior to the postseason, the Astros won both games against the Guardians, lost two out of three against the Mariners, and won three out of four against the Angels. 

The Houston pitching staff had a 3.74 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .231 opponent batting average this year. The Astros' offense scored 740 runs with a .262 batting average and a .322 on-base percentage during the regular season. Alex Bregman hit .260 with 26 home runs and 75 RBIs for the Astros this season.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Tyler Holton, who will be used as an opener. He had a brief appearance in Game 1, having two pitches for one out. Holton is 7-2 with a 2.19 ERA in 66 games (9 starts this year). Recently, he played against the Orioles, Rays, and White Sox. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Hunter Brown, who is 11-9 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 170 innings pitched this season. Brown has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Before the previous game against Seattle, Brown pitched very well against the Padres.

Why the Astros will beat the Tigers

• The Astros have won 10 of their last 11-day playoff games against AL Central opponents.
• The Tigers have lost each of their last five-day games against the Astros following a road win.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against AL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as underdogs against the Astros following a win.

Why the Tigers will beat the Astros

• The Astros have lost each of their last six playoff games as home favorites.
• The Tigers have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Tigers have covered the run line each of their last eight-day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home playoff games.
• The Tigers have led after 5 innings in each of their last six road games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Tigers have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Astros' last six games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Tigers' last six-day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Tigers' last 12-day games against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Astros' last six games as favorites against AL Central opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against the Tigers.
• Yordan Alvarez has recorded a Double in each of his last three home appearances against AL opponents.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last eight Wednesday-day appearances with the Astros as favorites.
• Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Astros' last five playoff games against AL Central opponents at Minute Maid Park.
• Mauricio Dubon has recorded at least one Single in each of the Astros' last eight Wednesday games.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in day games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Ben Gamel has scored a run in each of his last seven home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.567) this season.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Matt Vierling has recorded an RBI in three of the Tigers' last four games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
• Matt Vierling has scored at least one run in each of his last seven Wednesday appearances with the Tigers as underdogs.
• Matt Vierling has recorded three or more total bases in each of his last seven Wednesday appearances with the Tigers as underdogs.
• Wenceel Perez has recorded at least one Single in four of the Tigers' last five games as underdogs against the Astros.
• Andy Ibanez has recorded at least one hit in eight of his last nine appearances against the Astros after playing the previous day.
• Javier Baez has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Houston Astros rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (1176).
• The Houston Astros are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
• The Detroit Tigers rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (416).
• The Detroit Tigers rank 4th in the league for ERA this season (3.61).

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction 

Detroit comes into this matchup needing just one more win to advance to the next round, but they will need to find more offense here. The Tigers scored in just one inning on Tuesday afternoon and stranded a bunch of runners as the game went on. Houston has been solid at home all season and they have a ton of playoff experience, so they won’t panic coming into this game. Hunter Brown has been very good for the Astros this season, but Detroit has had one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB. Take the under here.