Orioles vs Guardians Prediction 4/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate an Orioles vs Guardians prediction for this MLB game on Friday, April 17th at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 9-10 this season after they lost game one in this series by a score of 4-2 on Thursday night. Baltimore did absolutely nothing at the plate in the first eight innings, but they finally scored twice in the ninth to avoid the shutout. The Orioles recorded four hits in the game and they were led by Henderson and Alonso, who both had one RBI. Baz allowed six hits and four earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Foster and Wells pitched the final two innings. Prior to this series, Baltimore lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks, but did win two out of three against the Giants before that. 

This season, Baltimore has a 4.01 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and a .253 opponent batting average, while they have scored 79 runs with a .240 batting average and a .327 on base percentage. Gunnar Henderson has led the Orioles with six home runs and 14 RBIs, while Jeremiah Jackson has added four home runs and 14 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Chris Bassitt, who is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.36 WHIP over 11.0 innings pitched this season. 

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 11-9 this year after they won game one by a score of 4-2 on Thursday. Cleveland scored two runs in the first inning and they didn’t allow a hit until the ninth in the win. The Guardians recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Ramirez, who went 2-3 with one home run and two RBIs. Messick allowed two hits and two earned runs over 8.0 innings for the win, while Smith picked up the save. Prior to this series, Cleveland lost two out of three against the Cardinals and two out of three against the Braves. 

This season, Cleveland has a 3.95 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a .232 opponent batting average, while they have scored 79 runs with a .231 batting average and a .315 on base percentage. Chase DeLauter has led the Guardians with five home runs and 12 RBIs, while Jose Ramirez has added four home runs and 10 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Tanner Bibee, who is 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP over 18.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Orioles have lost each of their last seven road games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The home team has won six of the last seven games between the Orioles and Guardians.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against American League opponents.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in five of their last six games against AL East opponents.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in four of their last five night games at Progressive Field against AL East opponents.
• The Guardians have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Guardians have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a win.
• The Orioles have won each of their last four games against AL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as favorites following a win.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in four of their last five games as underdogs against the Guardians following a road loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Orioles’ last four games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Guardians’ last five games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Orioles’ last eight games as road underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Guardians’ last six games.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last 12 games as favorites against the Orioles.
• Rhys Hoskins has hit a home run in each of his last two home appearances against the Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Chris Bassitt has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against the Guardians.
• Leody Taveras has recorded at least one hit in each of the Orioles’ last seven games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jordan Westburg has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances.

Orioles vs Guardians Prediction 

Cleveland came very close to pitching a no hitter on Thursday to start this series, but they have allowed 5+ runs in three of their last five games. The Guardians are 5-2 at home this year, while the Orioles are 3-4 on the road. Baltimore has lost three in a row and they have allowed 23 runs in their last four games. Neither starter has great numbers to start the season and both offenses are decent, so I like the over here.

David Racey's Pick: Over 8