Mets vs Cubs Prediction 4/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Friday, April 17th at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 7-12 this season after they lost all three against the Dodgers by scores of 0-4, 1-2, and 2-8. In game three, New York cut the deficit to 2-1 in the fifth inning, but they allowed the next six runs in the lopsided loss. The Mets recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Semien and Melendez, who both had one RBI. Holmes allowed four hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Williams allowed four earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, New York lost all three against the Athletics and two out of three against the Diamondbacks. 

This season, New York has a 3.83 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .234 opponent batting average, while they have scored 65 runs with a .220 batting average and a .286 on base percentage. Bo Bichette has led the Mets with one home run and nine RBIs, while Brett Baty has added zero home runs and seven RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Kodai Senga, who is 0-2 with a 7.07 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP over 14.0 innings pitched this season. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 9-9 this year after they won two out of three against the Phillies by scores of 7-13, 10-4, and 11-2. In game three, Chicago fell behind 1-0 in the first inning, but they scored the next 11 runs to pull away with the win. The Cubs recorded 15 hits in the game and they were led by Hoerner, who went 3-5 with one home run and five RBIs. Imanaga allowed three hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings for the win, while Little allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to that series, Chicago lost two out of three against the Pirates, but did win two out of three against the Rays before that. 

This season, Chicago has a 3.88 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a .220 opponent batting average, while they have scored 94 runs with a .248 batting average and a .341 on base percentage. Nico Hoerner has led the Cubs with two home runs and 18 RBIs, while Dansby Swanson has added four home runs and 11 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Edward Cabrera, who is 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 16.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last seven games following a loss.
• The Cubs have won each of their last four day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have covered the run line each of their last four day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three day games.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Cubs have lost each of their last five games as favorites following a win.
• The Mets have won each of their last four games as underdogs against the Cubs following a loss.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last eight day games against the Cubs at Wrigley Field following a loss.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Mets’ last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Cubs’ last eight day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last three day games at Wrigley Field.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances at Wrigley Field against opponents that held a losing record.
• Edward Cabrera has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Carson Kelly has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against opponents that held a losing record.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games against the Cubs.
• Kodai Senga has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances after not playing the previous day.

Mets vs Cubs Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup on a lengthy losing streak and they have scored a total of three runs in their last four games. The Mets are 4-6 on the road this year, while the Cubs are 4-5 at home. Chicago has won three of their last four games and they have scored 7+ in four straight. The Cubs are starting Cabrera, who has allowed three earned runs and 10 hits over 16.2 innings. The Mets are starting Senga, who has had two solid starts, but allowed seven earned runs to the A’s last time out. I know the wind is blowing out, but I think this is a pretty good pitching matchup and New York is struggling to score, so I like the under here.

David Racey's Pick: Under 10.5