LA Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction MLB Picks 7/11/24

Philadelphia Phillies (60-32) vs LA Dodgers (55-38)

Game Info: Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:05 pm (Citizens Bank Park)

Aaron Nola (10-4) (3.56) vs Landon Knack (1-2) (2.86)

Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -150 / LA Dodgers +130 --- Over/Under: 9.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: MLB.tv Stream the MLB Game of the Day all season on ESPN+. Sign up now! Advertisement

In this article we will formulate a LA Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 11th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. To formulate this prediction for game three in the series, we will examine:

  • The Dodgers recent form and recent player performance 
  • The Phillies recent form and recent play performance
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Los Angeles
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Philadelphia 
  • Recent betting trends in games played between Los Angeles and Philadelphia 
  • A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Los Angeles and Philadelphia 

Dodgers Have Lost Three Straight 

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 55-38 this year and they have lost three games in a row. Los Angeles has lost the first two games in this series and they have been out scored 14-4. Prior to this series, the Dodgers won two out of three against the Brewers, lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks, and lost two out of three against the Giants. Los Angeles is 3-6 in their last nine games, but they still have a healthy lead in the NL West. 

The Los Angeles pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a .225 opponent batting average. The Dodgers offense has scored 462 runs with a .255 batting average and a .334 on base percentage. Shohei Ohtani is batting .317 with 28 home runs and 66 RBI’s for the Dodgers this season. Los Angeles has allowed at least five runs in nine of their last eleven games. 

Phillies are Looking for the Sweep 

The Philadelphia Phillies are 60-32 this season and they have won three of their last five games. Philadelphia has won the first two games in this series by scores of 10-1 and 4-3. Prior to this series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Braves, won two out of three against the Cubs, and split four games with the Marlins. Philadelphia is 6-3 in their last nine games and they are leading the NL East. 

The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.24 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a .226 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 456 runs with a .260 batting average and a .330 on base percentage. Nick Castellanos is batting .234 with 12 home runs and 43 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia has scored at least five runs in five of their last nine games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for LA is Landon Knack, who is 1-2 with a 2.86 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 34.2 innings pitched this year. Knack has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 10-4 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 113.2 innings pitched this season. Nola has allowed three earned runs or more in four of his last five starts. 

Why the Dodgers will beat the Phillies

  • The Dodgers have won five of their last seven games as road underdogs against NL East opponents following a road loss.
  • The Phillies have lost each of their last four Thursday night games as favorites against NL West opponents.
  • The Dodgers have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
  • The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games at Citizens Bank Park following a win.

Total Runs Facts

  • Ten of the Dodgers' last 12 night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Four of the Phillies' last five games as favorites against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Dodgers' last five Thursday games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances against NL West opponents.
  • Aaron Nola has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three home appearances against the Dodgers.
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in four of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite against the Dodgers.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies' last four night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
  • Aaron Nola has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 14 appearances against NL West opponents.
  • Alec Bohm has recorded a Double in six of the Phillies' last eight games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 11 appearances with the Phillies as favorites against NL West opponents.
  • Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies' last five games as favorites against NL opponents.

Los Angeles Dodgers Player Prop Facts

  • Mookie Betts has hit a home run in each of his two previous appearances with his team as an underdog against the Phillies.
  • Mookie Betts has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven appearances with the Dodgers as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
  • Mookie Betts has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Mookie Betts has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Max Muncy has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Dodgers as road underdogs.
  • Shohei Ohtani has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with his team as an underdog against NL East opponents.
  • Mookie Betts has scored at least one run in each of his last six road appearances against the Phillies.

LA Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 

The Dodgers come into this matchup looking to avoid being swept, but they have not played well over their last nine games and their pitching staff has allowed quite a few runs. Los Angeles is 27-19 on the road this year, while Philadelphia is 35-14 at home. The Phillies have been one of the best teams in the MLB all season, but Nola needs to get back on track, as he has been very average over the last few weeks. For the Dodgers, Knack hasn’t pitched a ton of innings, but he has been a very good fill in starting pitcher. I think Knack can get the job done once again here and my LA Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction is for the Dodgers to get the win. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

MLB Picks & Predictions Today 7/20/24 | Ron's Rundown

18+ Has gambling become a problem for you? Call the National Problem Gambling Hotline.
1-800-522-4700 | ncpgambling.org

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.

Dismiss