Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction MLB Picks 7/11/24

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Milwaukee Brewers meet Thursday in MLB action from American Family Field. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction. This will be the final installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game. We will examine:

The Milwaukee Brewers recent form and player performance

The Pittsburgh Pirates recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Milwaukee Brewers

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates

Recent betting trends in games played between the Brewers and Pirates

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Brewers vs Pirates game

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

Pittsburgh played the New York Mets over the weekend. The Pirates split that series with a pair of wins 14-2 Friday and 8-2 in the finale. In their series versus the Brewers this week Pittsburgh won the opener 12-2. On Wednesday the Pirates were blown out 9-0. Starter Martin Perez finished with 4.2 innings and five earned on nine hits and three walks.

In the starter role for the Pirates on Thursday it’ll be Paul Skenes. This year in his rookie campaign Skenes is 5-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 10 starts. Skenes has 78 Ks in 59.1 innings.

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

Over on the Brewers’ side, they played the Los Angeles Dodgers in their last series. Milwaukee lost the first pair in that set but staved off the sweep with a 9-2 Sunday win. On Wednesday the Brewers bagged 14 team hits in the huge win. Starter Tobias Myers was great on 8.0 innings with four hits, one walk and six Ks.

It’ll be Aaron Civale in the starter role for the Brewers on Thursday. This year Civale is 2-6 with a 5.18 ERA in 18 starts. Civale is 33-32 with a 4.12 ERA in 104 career starts.

Pirates vs Brewers Pick Injury Notes

Brewers SP DL Hall (knee) was removed from his rehab start Tuesday after getting hit in the forearm by a comebacker.

Total Runs Facts

• Eleven of the Pirates’ last 12 day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Brewers’ last four games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last eight day games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last six Thursday games.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• William Contreras has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against NL opponents.
• Christian Yelich has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances with the Brewers as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• William Contreras has scored at least one run in 10 of the Brewers’ last 11 games as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• William Contreras has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Brewers’ last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Christian Yelich has recorded at least one Single in 13 of his last 14 appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Brice Turang has recorded at least one hit in 17 of his last 18 appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Gary Sanchez has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against the Pirates.
• Christian Yelich ranks T10th in the league in Steals (21) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Rowdy Tellez has hit at least one home run in two of the Pirates’ last three games as favorites.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against the Brewers.
• Rowdy Tellez has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Pirates’ last three games as favorites against NL opponents.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Single in each of the Pirates’ last six road games against NL Central opponents.
• Rowdy Tellez has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Pirates’ last four road games against NL Central opponents.
• Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Pirates as road favorites against the Brewers.
• Jack Suwinski has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances with the Pirates as road favorites against NL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Milwaukee Brewers rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (344).
• The Milwaukee Brewers are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 26th in the league for strikeouts against this season (855).
• The Pittsburgh Pirates rank T5th in the league for home runs allowed this season (92).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

I’ll stay with the Pirates. Skenes is cruising along nicely this season. In his last three starts combined Skenes is 1-0 with four earned on 16 hits and five walks over 20.0 innings. As for Civale, he’s got seven earned over 15.2 innings total in his last three starts combined.

On Wednesday the Pirates couldn’t do much on offense and the pitching was pretty bad across the board. If there’s good news, Pittsburgh only used two arms out of the bullpen. Skenes should set the table Thursday if he can keep things rolling; the bats need to come along for the ride, though.