Mavericks vs Heat Prediction 10/26/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Miami Heat play host to the Dallas Mavericks at the Kaseya Center on Monday night. Here’s a Mavericks vs. Heat Prediction. This article will include a Mavericks vs. Heat Pick.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview 

The Dallas Mavericks will be eager to bounce back in this contest after getting routed by the Spurs in a 122-106 home defeat on Saturday. Sergio de Larrea led the team in scoring with 21 points on nine-for-15 shooting off the bench; Daniel Gafford, PJ Washington, and Marcus Sasser each scored 12 points, while Zaccharie Risacher chipped in with just 11 points.

As a team, the Mavericks shot 51 percent from the field and 11 of 28 from the 3-point line as they weathered an early storm from the Spurs and fought hard to stay within striking distance, until the fourth quarter, when they went ice-cold and scored just 17 points ot allow the Spurs to pull away at the end.

Miami Heat Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat are still searching for their first win of the season as they are now on a three-game slide after falling just short to the Hornets on Saturday. Davion Mitchell led the team with 22 points and 10 assists, Bam Adebayo added 20 points with eight rebounds and four assists, Pelle Larsson chipped in with 15 points off the bench, while Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 14 points.

As a team, the Heat shot just 43 percent from the field and 13 of 35 from the 3-point line as they struggled to keep pace with the Hornets from the start and ended up scoring just 17 points in the third quarter to trail by as many as 23 points, which was a real shame, because the Heat finally caught fire in the fourth quarter to erase the deficit, but they could never regain the lead.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Heat have won 12 of their last 13 games against Southwest Division opponents after losing as favorites.
• The Mavericks have lost each of their last six games against Southeast Division opponents.
• The Heat have covered the spread in each of their last five games as favorites after losing as favorites.
• The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs against Southeast Division opponents.

Why the Dallas Mavericks will win

• The Heat have lost three of their last four games as favorites against Western Conference opponents.
• The Mavericks have won each of their last two games as road underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents following a loss.
• The Mavericks have covered the spread in each of their last six night games against the Heat following a home loss.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games at Kaseya Center.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Mavericks’ last eight road games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of the Heat’s last six night games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Heat rank 30th in the league for opponent three-point field goal attempts per game this season (43.7).
• The Heat rank 30th in the league for H1 opponent points per game this season (66.7).
• Only 12.2% of the Mavericks’ scoring this season has come from the free-throw line – lowest mark in the league.
• Seven different Mavericks players have scored 15+ points in a game this season – equal-most in the league.

Mavericks vs Heat Prediction

The Mavericks are still missing a bunch of players, with Dereck Lively, Santi Aldama, Naji Marshall, and Caleb Martin all out, and they are keeping an eye on Cooper Flagg, who is questionable, while the Heat are coming in with a full squad once again.

The Mavericks haven’t enjoyed the start to the season they were hoping for, but they were good enough to match the Spurs for a majority of the contest on Saturday, and they will like their chances against the slumping Heat, who are still winless after three games. The Mavericks expect to have Kyrie Irving back, and they could even get Flagg back in action, so I will stick with the Mavericks to at least keep this one within single digits in the end.

Peter Tran's Pick: Dallas +8.5