Pick details
| MATCHUP | South Alabama Jaguars | Arkansas State Red Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Spread | +1.5 -115 | -1.5 -105 |
| Moneyline | -105 | -115 |
| Total | Over 57.5 (-115) | Under 57.5 (-105) |
| Where | Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR | |
| When | Thursday, October 8, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:30 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN2 | |
Arkansas State Red Wolves Preview
Arkansas State has a 2-3 record and are coming off a 20-23 road loss against Louisiana. They will face Southern Miss and Georgia State next. Offensively, Arkansas State averages 25 points per game, ranking 93rd in the nation, while defensively, they allow 29.2 points per game, which is 101st. Arkansas State averages 348.4 total yards per game (208.6 passing and 139.8 rushing), while allowing 399.6 total yards per game (197.2 rushing and 202.4 passing).
Trey Owens leads Arkansas State with 1,043 passing yards with 66.9% completed passes and 5 touchdowns. Solomon Baggett leads the team in rushing yards with 211, while Hunter Summers has a team-high 20 receptions for 263 receiving yards. Defensively, Joe Drew has a team-high 46 total tackles (27 of them solo), while Ryan Reese leads the team with 1.5 sacks.
South Alabama Jaguars Preview
South Alabama has a 3-2 record and are coming off a 52-35 home win against Louisiana-Monroe. They will face Marshall and Louisiana Tech next. Offensively, South Alabama averages 31.2 points per game, ranking 66th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 39.5 points per game, which is 132nd. South Alabama averages 451 total yards per game (245.8 passing and 205.2 rushing), while allowing 410.2 total yards per game (177.4 rushing and 232.8 passing).
Jared Hollins leads South Alabama with 779 passing yards with 61% completed passes and 6 touchdowns. PJ Martin leads the team in rushing yards with 328, while Brendan Jenkins has a team-high 20 receptions for 319 receiving yards. Defensively, Cole Blaylock has a team-high 32 total tackles (16 of them solo), while Stephen Johnson leads the team with 1.5 sacks.
South Alabama Jaguars @ Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Trends: Week 6
Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win
- The home team has won each of South Alabama’s last seven games.
- South Alabama has lost each of its last eight October games as an underdog.
- Arkansas State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games against conference opponents.
- South Alabama has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four October games as a road underdog.
- The home team has won the first half in each of South Alabama’s last eight games.
- The home team has won the first quarter in seven of South Alabama’s last eight games.
Why the South Alabama Jaguars will win
- South Alabama has won three of its last four games as an underdog against Arkansas State.
- Arkansas State has lost three of its last four games as a favorite against teams from Alabama.
- Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as a favorite against teams from Alabama.
- The underdog has covered the spread in six of Arkansas State’s last seven games at Centennial Bank Stadium.
- South Alabama has won the first half in four of its last five games against Arkansas State.
- South Alabama has won the first quarter in each of its last five Thursday road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the last five games between South Alabama and Arkansas State have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of South Alabama’s last five October games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 6, Chauncy Cobb ranks 3rd in the Sun Belt Conference for receptions (25) this season.
South Alabama Jaguars Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 6, Anthony Eager ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (27.7) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Arkansas State ranks T136th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (0.6).
- Arkansas State ranks 128th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (197.2).
- South Alabama ranks 5th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (12.8).
- South Alabama ranks T132nd among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (9.8).
South Alabama vs Arkansas State Prediction
In this South Alabama vs Arkansas State prediction, Arkansas State is coming as -1.5 home favorites. Both teams have mirror records this season, but Arkansas State’s both wins have been at home, where they held their opponents into just 21 points combined, while South Alabama has lost both of its road games, having conceded 73 points in those two defeats. South Alabama also has the 7th-worst defense in the entire country, so the value here lies with the home team. Take Arkansas State on the moneyline in this one.
Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Arkansas State ML
