Pick details
| MATCHUP | Buffalo Bulls | Ball State Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 6-3 | 3-6 |
| Spread | -1.5 100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Moneyline | -112 | -108 |
| Total | Over 53.5 (-108) | Under 53.5 (-112) |
| Where | Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN | |
| When | Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:30 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN2 | |
Buffalo vs. Ball State Prediction
Ball State plays its best ball at home, but there’s no doubt Buffal os the better team across the board. Ball State is extremely limited offensively, which includes being 112th in total offense and 104th in scoring offense. The defense is 125th in total defense and 131st in scoring defense.
Ball State has come up short any time it’s stepped up in competition this season. Buffalo is riding a four-game winning streak, and we’re seeing the offense pick up. Buffalo has scored 25 or more points in three straight games. Buffalo is also 5-0 ATS in its last five games. These are two teams heading in different directions, and while the underdog has covered seven of the last eight games between Ball State and Buffalo, we’re not getting enough to consider the Cardinals on Wednesday night. I’ll lay the small number with Buffalo on the road.
Buffalo Betting Preview
Buffalo beat Bowling Green and Miami OH, and they play Central Michigan next. Kent State has won 4 straight games. Buffalo is 2-2 SU on the road, 4-1 SU at home, and 5-4 ATS on the season. Jason Wright is completing 49.4 percent of his passes for 1,345 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Wright has been sacked 18 times this season. Chance Morrow has 679 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns on 53 receptions. Dwayne Early Jr. has 272 receiving yards on 19 receptions. Clint Walker has 195 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns on 22 receptions.
Buffalo averages 167.3 rushing yards, and Messiah Burch leads the team with 901 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 26 points and 374 total yards per game. Kent State has forced 4 turnovers. SaVeon Brown leads Buffalo with 75 tackles. Sedrick Vessah leads Buffalo with 3.5 sacks. Miles Greer leads Buffalo with 1 interception.
Ball State Betting Preview
Ball State beat Sacramento State, lost to UMass, and they play Ohio next. Kent State has lost 5 of their last 7 games. Ball State is 1-5 SU on the road, 2-1 SU at home, and 6-3 ATS on the season. Keldric Luster is completing 63 percent of his passes for 1,482 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Luster has been sacked 14 times this season. Donovan Hamilton has 354 receiving yards and 1 touchdown on 28 receptions. Jamarion McDougle has 298 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns on 25 receptions. Isaiah Thacker has 216 receiving yards and 1 touchdown on 17 receptions.
Ball State averages 144.2 rushing yards, and TJ Horton leads the team with 436 yards and 9 touchdowns. Defensively, Ball State is allowing 34.8 points and 426.4 total yards per game. Ball State has forced 5 turnovers. Sterling Smith leads Ball State with 46 tackles. Ben Marsh leads Ball State with 3 sacks. Kamron Chamble leads Ball State with 2 interceptions.
Why the Ball State Cardinals will win
- Ball State has won each of its last four home games against teams from New York.
- Buffalo has lost three of its last four November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Ball State has covered the spread in 15 of its last 17 games at Scheumann Stadium.
- Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Buffalo has lost the first half in each of its last four November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the Buffalo Bulls will win
- Ball State has lost each of its last nine November games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Buffalo has won each of its last four games.
- Buffalo has covered the spread in each of its last five games.
- Buffalo has won the first half in eight of its last nine November games as a road favorite.
Total Points Facts
- Nine of Ball State’s last 10 November games at Scheumann Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eight of Buffalo’s last nine November games as a road favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Ball State Cardinals Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, TJ Horton leads the Mid-American Conference for yards per carry (6.1) this season.
Buffalo Bulls Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Chance Morrow leads the Mid-American Conference for receiving yards (679) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Ball State ranks 132nd among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (34.8).
- Ball State ranks 130th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (9.4).
- Buffalo has played in the equal-highest number of games that went to overtime this season (2).
- Buffalo ranks T131st among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (-4.6).
