Northern Illinois vs Mississippi State Prediction 9/20/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The Northern Illinois Huskies and the Mississippi State Bulldogs meet in week 4 college football action from Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction.

Northern Illinois Huskies Recap

The Northern Illinois Huskies come into this game looking to shake off a 20-9 loss at the hands of Maryland last time out to sit at 1-1 on the year. After this game, Northern Illinois will head home for a game against San Diego State.

Huskies Looking To Bounce Back From First Loss

Josh Holst has thrown for 192 yards and an interception on 65% passing while Chavon Wright leads the Huskies in rushing with 167 yards and a touchdown and Telly Johnson Jr. has 153 rushing yards with a touchdown as well this season. DeAree Rogers has a team-high 10 catches for 89 yards as well this season. On defense, Quinn Urwiler has a team-high 20 total tackles including 14 solo tackles while NIU’s defense as a whole has combined for 2 sacks and an interception so far this season.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Recap

The Mississippi State Bulldogs come into this game looking to add on to their 63-0 win over Alcorn State last time out to improve to 3-0 on the year. After this game, Mississippi State will take on the Tennessee Volunteers at home.

Bulldogs Looking To Remain Unbeaten

Blake Shapen has thrown for 724 yards, 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 68.8% passing while Fluff Bothwell leads the Bulldogs in rushing with 170 yards on the ground and 4 touchdowns and Davon Booth has 127 rushing yards and a touchdown as well this season. Brenen Thompson has 15 receptions for 278 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns while Anthony Evans III has a team-high 17 catches for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns this season. On defense, Isaac Smith and Nic Mitchell each have a team-high 18 total tackles while Will Whitson has a team-high 2 sacks. As a unit, Mississippi State has combined for 4 sacks and 4 interceptions so far this season.

Northern Illinois Huskies @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win

• Mississippi State has won 15 of its last 16 games against non-conference opponents at Davis Wade Stadium.
• Northern Illinois has lost each of its last seven September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Mississippi State has covered the spread in each of its last four games.
• Mississippi State has won the first quarter in 31 of its last 36 games against non-conference opponents at Davis Wade Stadium.
• Mississippi State has won the first half in 13 of its last 14 home games against non-conference opponents.

Why the Northern Illinois Huskies will win

• Mississippi State has lost four of its last five September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Northern Illinois has won six of its last eight games against non-conference opponents.
• Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Northern Illinois has covered the spread in 13 of its last 17 games as an underdog.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Mississippi State’s last eight home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Northern Illinois’ last seven games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Da’Marion Bothwell leads Mississippi State for touchdowns (4) this season.

Northern Illinois Huskies Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, DeAree Rogers ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Mississippi State ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
• Mississippi State ranks T3rd among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+15.0).
• Northern Illinois ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
• Northern Illinois ranks 134th among FBS teams for H1 points per game this season (4.5).

Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction

I’m on the under here. I just think this is a case of Northern Illinois’ offense having a hard time breaking down Mississippi State’s defense which has looked fantastic against inferior opposition up to this point. The Bulldogs are still a solid team that can put points on the board, but a 35-10 or 38-10 blowout still has us coming in under this number. Give me the under in this one.