UMass vs Northern Illinios Prediction College Football Picks 10/5/24

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the UMass Minutemen

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Northern Illinois Huskies

Recent betting trends in games played between UMass vs NIU

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the UMass vs NIU game

UMass Minutemen Betting Preview

This year UMass opened up the calendar versus Eastern Michigan. The Minutemen would fall 28-14 in that one, then followed it up with two more losses to Toledo 38-23 and Buffalo 34-3. Game four was UMass’ first win 35-31 over Central Connecticut State.

Last weekend versus Miami-OH, the Minutemen staged a fourth-quarter comeback only to fall short in overtime 23-20. Taisun Phommachanh completed nine of 22 passes for 173 yards and a score while also leading the rush on 80 yards from 18 carries.

Northern Illinois Huskies Betting Preview

Over on the Huskies’ side, they kicked things off with a 54-15 blowout win over Western Illinois. Northern Illinois would then eke out a great win 16-14 versus Notre Dame, but game three was a loss 23-20 to Buffalo in overtime.

In their game versus NC State, the Huskies were down 17-14 at the break and couldn’t mount the comeback during a 24-17 loss. QB Ethan Hampton logged 159 yards, one score, and two interceptions. Antario Brown was the lead rusher on 28 carries for 114 yards.

Why the Northern Illinois Huskies will win

• Massachusetts has lost 25 of its last 26 road games against non-conference opponents.
• Northern Illinois has won five of its last six home games in October.
• Massachusetts has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight October games as a road underdog.

Why the Massachusetts Minutemen will win

• Northern Illinois has lost 11 of its last 16 games as a favorite.
• The underdog has won 15 of Northern Illinois' last 23 games.
• The underdog has covered the spread in eight of Massachusetts' last nine games.
• Northern Illinois has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven October games as a home favorite.

Total Points Facts

• Four of Massachusetts' last five road games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Six of Northern Illinois' last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams at Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

UMass vs NIU Prediction

I’m probably going with NIU. The Huskies did a great job on defense against NC State in their last appearance, holding the Wolfpack to 171 yards (108 passing), 3.6 yards per play, 11 first downs, and just 1-of-11 on third-down tries. The trouble is, Northern Illinois coughed up four turnovers on offense and averaged just 3.8 yards per play when they had the ball.

As for UMass, they were pretty good on defense themselves in their loss to Miami-OH, allowing just one of eight third-down conversions. The Minutemen couldn’t generate enough offense to power out a win, though. This weekend’s matchup should be a pretty good one, and I like NIU to eke out the cover.