TCU vs SMU Prediction College Football Picks 9/21/24

SMU (2-1) vs TCU (2-1)

Game Info: Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 5:00 pm (Gerald J. Ford Stadium)

Betting Odds: SMU +3 / TCU -3 --- Over/Under: 58.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The TCU Horned Frogs and SMU Mustangs meet Saturday in week 4 college football action at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Here’s a TCU vs SMU Prediction. This article will include a TCU vs SMU Prediction Pick.

TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview

The TCU Horned Frogs recently beat Long Island and lost to UCF, and they play Kansas next. TCU Horned Frogs have lost 4 of their last 6 road games. Josh Hoover is completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 1,022 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jack Bech and Savion Williams have combined for 541 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while JP Richardson has 13 receptions.

The TCU Horned Frogs ground game is averaging 94 yards per contest, and Cam Cook leads the way with 174 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, TCU is allowing 20.7 points and 308.3 yards per game. Jamel Johnson leads the TCU Horned Frogs with 25 tackles, Namdi Obiazor has 1.5 sacks and Tymon Mitchell has 1 interception.

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

The SMU Mustangs beat Houston Christian, lost to BYU, and will play Florida State next. SMU has won 7 of its last 8 home games. Kevin Jennings is completing 56.9 percent of his passes for 342 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. RJ Maryland and Key’Shawn Smith have combined for 276 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Jake Bailey has 7 receptions.

The SMU Mustangs ground game is averaging 195.3 yards per contest, and Brashard Smith leads the way with 253 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, SMU is allowing 16.3 points and 263.7 yards per game. Isaiah Nwokobia leads the SMU Mustangs with 18 tackles, Isaiah Smith has 2 sacks and Kori Roberson Jr. has 1 interception.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs will win

TCU has won 10 of its last 11 September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
SMU has lost eight of its last nine games as an underdog.
TCU has covered the spread in eight of its last nine road games in September.
SMU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against opponents from the Big 12 Conference.

Total Points Facts

Seven of TCU's last eight September games as a road favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Five of SMU's last six games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

SMU ranks T27th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (69).
SMU ranks T30th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (9.3).
TCU ranks 116th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (94.0).
TCU ranks T25th among FBS teams for points per game this season (37.7).

TCU vs SMU Prediction

The TCU Horned Frogs are just the more proven team at this point, as they went into Stanford and got whatever they wanted offensively. TCU then went toe to toe with a talented UCF squad. The SMU Mustangs nearly lost to Nevada as a double-digit favorite and then lost to BYU as a double-digit favorite. SMU clearly isn't the team oddsmakers thought it was. I'll lay the field goal with TCU on the road.