Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Prediction 6/11/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and the Dallas Wings meet Thursday in WNBA action from the College Park Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings prediction.

Matchup History

The Dallas Wings won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on September 11th, 2025, by a final score of 97-76, making it four straight meetings without back-to-back winners in this head-to-head matchup.

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to bounce back from an 87-81 loss at the hands of Golden State last time out to sit at 4-9 this season. After this game, the Mercury will head home for a game against the Los Angeles Sparks.

Mercury Have Two-Game Win Streak Snapped

Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 18.2 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 15 PPG with 7 RPG and a team-high 7.5 APG to lead the Mercury in assists this season. Jovana Nogic has 11.8 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 11 PPG while Natasha Mack has 10.3 PPG with 8.3 RPG to lead the Mercury in rebounding and to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year. 

Dallas Wings Recap

The Dallas Wings come into this game looking to bounce back from a 100-76 loss at the hands of Minnesota last time out to sit at 7-4 this season. After this game, the Wings will head on the road for a game against Portland.

Wings Have Four-Game Win Streak Snapped

Arike Ogunbowale has 14.8 PPG along with 2.9 APG while Paige Bueckers has 18.3 PPG along with 3.6 RPG and 6.2 APG. Jessica Shepard’s added 13.5 PPG with 11.4 RPG and 5.8 APG to lead the Wings in rebounding and assists while Azzi Fudd’s chipped in 12 PPG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for the Wings so far this season. 

Phoenix Mercury @ Dallas Wings Betting Trends: June 11, 2026

Why the Dallas Wings will win

• The Mercury have lost seven of their last eight games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The home team has won each of the last five games between the Wings and Mercury.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games following a road loss.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of the last five games between the Wings and Mercury.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Wings have lost 10 of their last 11 home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The road team has won three of the Mercury’s last four games.
• The Wings have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as home favorites following a road loss.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in four of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the last eight games between the Wings and Mercury have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Mercury’s last four games at College Park Center have gone OVER the total points line.

Dallas Wings Player Facts

• Jessica Shepard is the only player to have recorded a 20+ point triple-double this season.
• Madison Siegrist has recorded six games with 1+ assists and zero turnovers this season – equal-most of any player in the league.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• DeWanna Bonner ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FT% (96.0%) this season.
• Natasha Mack ranks T1st amongst qualified players for FG% (70.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Dallas Wings rank 1st for assists per game this season (23.2).
• The Dallas Wings rank 1st for assist to turnover ratio this season (2.0).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent three-point field goals attempts per game this season (26.7).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for field goals made per game this season (27.1).

Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Prediction

I’m on the Wings in this one. Dallas has shown a lot more upside this season and while they’re not at their peak yet with the inability to consistently beat the top-tier teams in the league, they usually do a good job of beating up on the bad teams and I still feel like Phoenix is in that mix of bad teams this season. Dallas should be able to get the job done at home here so give me the Wings.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Dallas -6.5