Naomi Osaka vs Paula Badosa Prediction 5/26/25 French Open Tennis Picks

Naomi Osaka and Paula Badosa meet in the first round of the 2025 French Open at Roland Garros. The match is scheduled for Monday, May 26. Here’s our Naomi Osaka vs Paula Badosa prediction. This preview will also include a Naomi Osaka vs Paula Badosa pick.

Naomi Osaka Preview

Naomi Osaka missed out on securing a seeding spot at the 2025 French Open, although the Japanese star re-entered the Top 50, settling at No. 49. Osaka has reached the third round at Roland Garros three times in her career, but was knocked out in the second round in last year’s tournament by eventual champion Iga Swiatek. Osaka held a match point but could not complete the upset.

After a first-round loss to Lucia Bronzetti in Madrid, Osaka decided to play the 125K level in Saint-Malo. There, she captured her first career clay title. Her most recent tournament was at the Italian Open where she and made the round of 16 in Rome. She played in one of the matches of the tournament in a loss to Peyton Stearns. Overall, Osaka has an 8-2 record on the dirt this season and owns 17 wins in total on all surfaces.

Paula Badosa Preview

Paula Badosa is the 10th seed at the 2025 French Open. Badosa has played in the Roland Garros four times in the past. She was a quarterfinalist in 2021 in what remains her best result at the clay-court Grand Slam. Badosa reached the third round in Paris last season, losing to her good friend Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets. She did not compete at the Olympic Games in the same venue.

Badosa’s preparations for the clay swing were cut short by injury, missing big event such as Madrid and Rome. She was fit enough to return in Strasbourg and Badosa played a couple of matches there. She earned a retirement win over Marie Bouzkova in the first round, but was knocked out in the quarterfinal by Liudmila Samsonova. 

Naomi Osaka vs Paula Badosa Head-To-Head

Osaka and Badosa have never met before this. The head-to-head is locked at 0-0.

Naomi Osaka vs Paula Badosa Prediction

I’m leaning Osaka here. Badosa is the better claycourter for sure, but she’s been dealing with a chronic back injury that has already eaten into some of her peak years. Osaka, by contrast, will be full confidence after her recent renaisance on clay. After losing early in Madrid, Osaka did the needful by dropping to the lower tiers and secure some wins under her belt in Saint-Malo where she won her first clay-court title. Her level looked extremely impressive in Rome and I think she’s a dangerous floater for any of the top seeds. 

Nur Said's Pick: Naomi Osaka in three sets