Pick details
French Open Prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi
02:30 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Matteo Berrettini -189 / Matteo Arnaldi +140
Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Preview
Matteo Berrettini reached his seventh Grand Slam quarterfinal and his second at the French Open. Berrettini avenged Jannik Sinner’s loss by taking out his compatriot’s conqueror, Juan Manuel Cerundolo, in the fourth round. The match took 35 games to decide. Berrettini prevailed 6-3, 7-6, 7-6 in two and a half hours of play. He was 5-3 down in the third set and saved three set points in the tiebreak to win the match in straight sets.In the victory, Berrettini fired 51 winners and 36 unforced errors, including 5 aces and 1 double fault. Berrettini landed 71% of first serves in play and won 84% of first serve points (64/76). Berrettini won 48% of second serve points (15/31) and saved one of two break points in the match.
Before this round, Berrettini beat Fucsovics, Rinderknech and Comesana, with two of his matches stretching past three sets. Berrettini last made the quarterfinal at Roland Garros in 2021 and hasn’t played the event since until this year.
Matteo Arnaldi reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at the 2026 French Open with a marathon five-set win over American Frances Tiafoe. Arnaldi trailed by two sets to one, but won a 67-minute fourth set in a tiebreak, having trailed 5-3 at one point, although Tiafoe failed to serve for the match. He eventually sealed the fifth set 6-4 with a late break.
Arnaldi hit 74 winners and 76 unforced errors in the match. He fired 18 aces and 5 double faults. Arnaldi landed 65% of first serves in play and won 65% of first serve points (91/139). Arnaldi won 44% of second serve points (33/75) and saved 17 out of 25 break points on serve. The match lasted five hours and 26 minutes. Before this round, Arnaldi beat Griekspoor, Tsitsipas and Collignon. He has played back-to-back five-setters.
Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Head-To-Head
Berrettini and Arnaldi have never faced off, so this will be their first meeting.Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction
We are guaranteed an Italian name in the semifinals of Roland Garros and the obvious shock is that it will not be Jannik Sinner. For Berrettini, this is his seventh major quarterfinal, and he’s a man with a wealth of experience at this stage. By contrast, Arnaldi will be playing his first and he’s coming off back-to-back five-setters that would have drained his energy tank at this point. I’m happy to back Berrettini to win in at least four sets.
Nur Said's Pick: Berrettini in four sets
