Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Prediction 4/30/25 Madrid Tennis Picks

Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys meet in the quarterfinals of the 2025 WTA Madrid Open on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. Here’s our Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys prediction. This preview will also include an Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys pick.

Iga Swiatek Preview

Iga Swiatek notched an impressive three-set win over power-hitting Russian Diana Shnaider to reach the Madrid Open quarterfinals. The second-seeded Pole won the first set 6-0 in just 22 minutes. But despite coming within two points of a straight sets victory, Swiatek lost the second set in a tie-break.

In the third set, Swiatek broke Shnaider for a 4-2 lead and went on to seal the set and the match 6-4 in two and a half hours. Swiatek finished the match with 30 winners and 56 unforced errors, including five aces and five double faults. Swiatek landed 57% of first serves in play and won 70% of first serve points (42/60). She won 47% of second serve points (21/45) and saved 11 of 13 breakpoints.

Swiatek improves to 4-1 on clay this season. Her only defeat was to Jelena Ostapenko in Stuttgart. Overall, Swiatek has won 25 of 32 matches in 2025. Swiatek will be chasing her third successive semifinal in Madrid. She has reached the final in the last two editions and won the tournament last year.

Madison Keys Preview

Madison Keys’ excellent start to the season continued as she reached her first quarterfinal of this year’s clay swing. Keys defeated Croatia’s Donna Vekic in straight sets in an hour and 17 minutes. The fifth-seeded Keys fired 22 winners and 36 unforced errors during the match. That tally included two aces and two double faults.

Keys landed 64% of first serves in play and won 64% of first serve points (23/36). She won 60% of second serve points (12/20) and saved two of three breakpoints. This was her fourth win in five matches on clay. Keys’ only defeat at that time was to Anna Kalinskaya at Charleston. Keys avenged that loss in the first week in Madrid, beating the Russian en route to the last 16. She also accounted for an opening win against Lucia Bronzetti. Keys is a perfect six out of six in sets won in Madrid.

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Head-To-Head

Swiatek and Keys have met six times on the WTA level. Swiatek has a 4-2 winning record. The World No. 2 also owns a dominant 3-0 record on clay and won their match at the 2024 Madrid Open semifinals in straight sets. But Keys defeated Swiatek en route to winning her first Grand Slam at this year’s Australian Open.

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Prediction

Swiatek opens as the favorite at -333. She has a perfect record against Keys on clay, and until she is dethroned as the champion in Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros, she remains the undisputed queen of the surface. But there is value in backing Keys here as she is oozing confidence after winning their last encounter at the Australian Open. Keys saved a match point and went on to lift her first Slam against Sabalenka. Now that is unreal mental toughness. Keys has quietly gone about her business in Madrid, not dropping a set, and the quicker clay court helps her aggressive game immensely. If she cleans up her baseline play and not overcommit, and lands that first serve consistently, then we could be in for another shock.

Nur Said's Pick: Madison Keys in three sets