Diana Shnaider vs Elise Mertens Prediction 5/12/25 Rome Tennis Picks

Diana Shnaider and Elise Mertens meet in the round of 16 of the 2025 Italian Open Rome on Monday, May 12, 2025. Here’s our Diana Shnaider vs Elise Mertens prediction. This preview will also include a Diana Shnaider vs Elise Mertens pick.

Diana Shnaider Preview 

Diana Shnaider knocked out Jaqueline Cristian in straight sets to reach the round of 16 of the Italian Open. Shnaider took the first set 6-3, breaking Cristian twice, and saving one breakpoint on her serve. In the second set, Shnaider recovered from an early break deficit to win by the same score, 6-3. Shnaider finished the match with six aces and three double faults.

The Russian lefty landed 62% of first serves in play and won 66% of first serve points (29/44). She won 56% of second serve points (15/27) and saved 10 of 11 breakpoints in the match. The match lasted an hour and 32 minutes. Shnaider had defeated Caroline Dolehide 6-0, 6-0 in her opening match – her second double bagel of this year’s clay swing. Shnaider picked up her sixth win in nine clay-court matches this season. It’s also the first time she’s advanced to the last 16 in Rome (lost to Paula Badosa in the third round last season).

Elise Mertens Preview

Elise Mertens is the 25th seed in Rome. The Belgian pulled off one of the upsets of the tournament. She defeated third seed Jessica Pegula in straight sets. The first set lasted 54 minutes, and it was Mertens who won it from behind. She trailed 2-3 after losing her serve. But she responded almost immediately to get the break back.

The set stayed on serve until the 12th game. Mertens broke Pegula to win 7-5. The second set was surprisingly one-sided. Mertens broke Pegula twice in succession to lead 5-1 and served effortlessly to win the match 7-5, 6-1. She spent an hour and 25 minutes and improves her head-to-head advantage to 4-1 against Pegula. Mertens beat Suzan Lamens in her opening match in three sets. She has a 6-3 record on clay this term. She will seek her second career quarterfinal at the Italian Open.

Diana Shnaider vs Elise Mertens Head-To-Head

Shnaider and Mertens have met twice at the WTA level. Mertens leads Shnaider 2-0. She won their first meeting at the 2023 Monterrey Open. In the second meeting, Mertens won a round of 16 match at the 2025 Stuttgart Open 6-2, 7-6.

Diana Shnaider vs Elise Mertens Prediction

I think Shnaider is flying under the radar, and she’s delivered a couple of shellackings already during this swing. While I don’t expect her to cruise to victory, she’s still a favorite in my eyes in this one, and the oddsmakers are taking note of her recent form against lower-ranked opponents. Her confidence is peaking at just the right time, and if she lands that powerful topspin forehand and moves Mertens around the court, she’ll overpower the Belgian. She’s got the weapons to do it, and the question is how perfectly she’ll execute the game plan. 

Nur Said's Pick: Diana Shnaider in three sets