Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction 4/29/25 Madrid Tennis Picks

Daniil Medvedev and Brandon Nakashima meet in the round of 16 of the 2025 ATP Madrid Open on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. Here’s our Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima prediction. This preview will also include a Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima pick.

Daniil Medvedev Preview

Daniil Medvedev is the ninth seed at the Madrid Open. He reached the round of 16 by playing only one match. Medvedev received a bye in the first round. In the second round, his opponent, Laslo Djere, pulled out because of injury. Although Medvedev had a seemingly tough draw on paper, most of the dangerous names fell like flies.

Medvedev drew the inexperienced Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the third round. And he easily brushed aside the 23-year-old 6-2, 6-2 in 63 minutes. Medvedev finished the match with two aces and two double faults. He landed 64% of first serves in play and won 76% of first serve points (22/29). Medvedev won 69% of second serve points (11/16) and saved one breakpoint he faced.

Medvedev broke Cerundolo’s serve four times in the match. He improves to 3-1 on clay, having reached the last 16 in Monte Carlo with victories over Karen Khachanov and Alexandre Muller. Medvedev is 15-8 for the season. He has won three of his last six matches. Medvedev is looking to defend quarterfinal points in Madrid.

Brandon Nakashima Preview

Brandon Nakashima is the 31st seed at the Madrid Open. The American won a couple of matches to get to this stage of the tournament. Like Medvedev, he got a bye in the first round. He started the event in the second round with a straight sets win over Sebastian Ofner. Nakashima dug out a 6-3, 7-6 win against the Austrian.

In the third round, Nakashima ousted Bucharest champion Flavio Cobolli in straight sets. The first set took an hour, with Nakashima staving off three breakpoints in the 11th game of the set before breaking Cobolli in the next game to win the first set 7-5. In the second set, Nakashima broke the Italian’s serve once to complete a 7-5, 6-3.

Nakashima was on a three-match losing streak before Madrid, but registered back-to-back victories for the first time in three tournaments. This is his best achievement in the Spanish capital, having never won a main draw match before this past week.

Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima Head-To-Head

Medvedev and Nakashima have met once on the ATP Tour. Medvedev won that match in straight sets at the 2023 Indian Wells.

Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

I’m tipping Nakashima to beat the spread in this one. Medvedev is yet to meet a serial challenger in the tournament, but Nakashima’s rally tolerance is something that could keep the score extremely tight. The American is not one to easily flinch in extended exchanges, and he plays a clean, low-error game on any surface. It only takes one bad game, a double fault under pressure, or one bad set to test Medvedev’s patience on clay before all hell breaks loose. 

Nur Said's Pick: Nakashima games handicap +3.5