Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction 5/17/25 Italian Open Final Tennis Picks

Coco Gauff and Jasmine Paolini meet in the final of the 2025 Italian Open Rome on Saturday, May 17, 2025. Here’s our Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini prediction. This preview will also include a Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini pick.

Coco Gauff Preview

Coco Gauff is the fourth seed at the Italian Open and is through to her first singles final here in Rome. To get there, the American started the fortnight navigating a tricky opening match against Victoria Mboko of Canada. She needed three sets to overcome the up-and-coming teenager. Gauff then beat Magda Linette 7-5, 6-3, avenging her loss to the Pole in Miami from earlier this season.

In the fourth round, Gauff defeated Emma Raducanu 6-1, 6-2 in the battle of former US Open champions. She withstood a tough challenger in the quarters, earning her second clay-court win of the season against Mirra Andreeva. And in the semifinal, she outlasted China’s No. 1 player Qinwen Zheng 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 after three and a half hours of tennis. Gauff will rise to World No. 2 after the tournament and will be the No. 2 seed at Roland Garros. She has an 11-2 record on clay. Remarkably, one of her two losses was against Jasmine Paolini in Stuttgart, and the other was to Aryna Sabalenka in the Madrid final. Gauff is looking to win her first WTA title of the season.

Jasmine Paolini Preview

Jasmine Paolini is the sixth seed at the Italian Open and will contest her first singles final in her home tournament in Rome. Paolini won the doubles title with Sara Errani last season, beating Gauff and Erin Routliffe in the final. Fast forward to 2025, and Paolini and Gauff will renew their rivalry in singles in the championship match. Like Gauff, Paolini is seeking her first WTA title of the season and second career WTA 1000 after her stunning success in Dubai over a year ago.

Paolini reached the final with some gusty wins. She started the tournament with two identical scorelines against Lulu Sun and Ons Jabeur (6-4, 6-3). In the last 16, she overpowered Jelena Ostapenko 7-5, 6-2. In the quarterfinal, Paolini fought back from a set and a break down to beat Diana Shnaider 6-7, 6-4, 6-2. And in the semifinal, Paolini beat the breakout star of the tournament, Peyton Stearns, 7-5, 6-1 in front of a raucous crowd. Paolini improves to 9-2 on clay this term, with her two losses being to Sabalenka in Stuttgart and Maria Sakkari in Madrid. This will be her first final of the season.

Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini Head-To-Head

Gauff and Paolini have met three times. Gauff leads the head-to-head 2-1. She’s won a couple of hard-court matches, and Paolini’s win was on the Stuttgart clay last month.

Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction

Gauff and Paolini have fully deserved their spots in this final, and we’re almost running it back from 12 months ago when they stood opposite each other in the doubles final. Paolini has had her number on clay, beating her in Stuttgart (although completely different setting and conditions) and in this year’s doubles quarterfinals. The crowd will also be behind Paolini, and we know how brutal they can be. But I still trust Gauff on Saturday just for her sheer resilience and playing ability. She’s been the best player of the tournament and a world-class defender. Paolini has a heavy artillery, but it is not powerful enough to push Coco far back on the baseline or keep her out of the rallies. That said, Gauff should prevail in three sets.

Nur Said's Pick: Coco Gauff in three sets