Casper Ruud vs Taylor Fritz Prediction 4/29/25 Madrid Tennis Picks

Casper Ruud and Taylor Fritz meet in the round of 16 of the 2025 ATP Madrid Open on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. Here’s our Casper Ruud vs Taylor Fritz prediction. This preview will also include a Casper Ruud vs Taylor Fritz pick.

Casper Ruud Preview

Casper Ruud is the 14th seed in Madrid. He started his campaign in the second round. Ruud defeated Arthur Rinderknech 6-3, 6-4 to bounce back from his loss to Holger Rune in the Barcelona quarterfinals. Ruud then beat 23rd seed Sebastian Korda in the third round. The match took 18 games to decide. Ruud prevailed 6-3, 6-3 in 72 minutes.

In the victory, Ruud hit 16 winners and five unforced errors, including three aces and one double fault. Ruud landed 69% of first serves in play and won 73% of first serve points (29/40). Ruud won 56% of second serve points and saved four of five breakpoints. The Norwegian broke Korda’s serve four times and won 44% of return points (23/52).

Ruud improves to 17-6 for the season, but a poor start to the clay swing by his high standards means that his ranking tanked to 15th this week. He had won five of seven matches on clay this term. Ruud is a former semifinalist in Madrid but lost in the round of 16 last season.

Taylor Fritz Preview

Taylor Fritz is the 3rd seed at the Madrid Open. He had a bye in the first round. Fritz beat Chris O’Connell 6-1, 6-4 to get the ball rolling in the first week. In the third round, he earned a retirement win over France’s Benjamin Bonzi.

Fritz lost his serve in the fifth game of the first set, and Bonzi capitalized as he would win the set 6-4. The second set stayed on serve until the 12th game when Fritz broke Bonzi, converting his fifth set point to level. After seeing the trainer, Bonzi was unable to continue the match, handing Fritz a direct pass into the last 16.

This is Fritz’s first clay-court tournament of 2025. He did not compete after the Miami Open where he lost to eventual champion Jakub Mensik in the semis. He reportedly battled an abdominal injury for several weeks and had to miss key events like Monte Carlo and Munich. Fritz is 16-6 for the season on the win-loss tally.

Casper Ruud vs Taylor Fritz Head-To-Head

Ruud and Fritz have met three times on the ATP level. Ruud leads Fritz 2-1 and has won their only clay meeting at the 2024 French Open in four sets.

Casper Ruud vs Taylor Fritz Prediction

I’m sitting on the fence in this one, and it’s probably a wise move to sit this out. Ruud is still searching for form on clay and has had a series of underwhelming results on his best surface. He still opens as the slight favorite with the oddsmakers largely because of his pedigree on clay. While the conditions in Madrid favor big hitters like Fritz, the American is finding his rhythm after recovering from an abdominal injury for a few weeks following his semifinal defeat in Miami. Fritz admitted that this is the least amount of tennis he has played this year, and the results justify this claim, as he hasn’t yet bagged an ATP title. 

Nur Said's Pick: Three sets in the match