Borna Coric vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction 4/24/25 Madrid Tennis Picks

Borna Coric and Matteo Arnaldi meet in the first round of the 2025 ATP Madrid Open on Thursday, April 24, 2025. Here’s our Borna Coric vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction. This preview will also include a Borna Coric vs Matteo Arnaldi pick.

Borna Coric Preview

Borna Coric is taking the long route to return to the world’s Top 100. Once touted as the next big thing in Croatian men’s tennis, Coric is coming off a disappointing 2024 season that saw him finish with a year-end ranking of No. 90. Earlier this season, he fell as low as No. 145. 

Coric knew he wouldn’t be eligible to play in ATP events with a three-digit ranking and had to go the Challenger Tour, where he won three successive titles in Lugano, Thionville, and Zadar. In 15 matches, he lost just two sets. But since his triumph in his home country at the Zadar Challenger, Coric lost half of his next six matches, which can largely be attributed to fatigue. But he’s finally strung two wins together in Madrid qualifying, beating Otto Virtanen and Gabriel Diallo to reach the main draw here for the eighth time. Coric was a semifinalist in Madrid two years ago, losing to Carlos Alcaraz.

Matteo Arnaldi Preview

Matteo Arnaldi is ranked 44th in the ATP rankings. He is currently on a three-match losing streak on tour. Arnaldi lost to Richard Gasquet in his first clay tournament of 2025 in Monte Carlo. The Italian then lost to Sebastian Korda in Barcelona this past week.

Arnalid’s last ATP match win was in the first round of the Miami Open when he defeated Yibing Wu in three sets. While his season started solidly with a quarterfinal in Dallas, semifinal in Delray and third round in Indian Wells (defeated Andrey Rublev), his recent form is poor. Arnaldi has played in two Madrid Open main draws. He reached the third round in 2023 as a qualifier (defeated Casper Ruud).

Borna Coric vs Matteo Arnaldi Head-To-Head

Coric and Arnaldi have not played on the ATP Tour. This will be their first meeting.

Borna Coric vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction

I’m backing Coric here at plus money. Do not be fooled by the rankings. Coric is well on his way to reclaim his rightful place in the Top 100 very soon. He’s a former Top 20 player and was a semifinalist in Madrid as recently as 2023. So, this is a player who’s been around the block for far too long to know how to problem-solve on the court. He’s won three tiles in the space of a month on the Challenger level to almost break into the Top 100 again. The smart money is on the Croatian.

Nur Said's Pick: Borna Coric in three sets