Naomi Osaka vs Caroline Garcia Prediction Australian Open Tennis Picks 1/13/25

Naomi Osaka is a two-time champion of the Australian Open but hasn't won a match in Melbourne since 2022 when she beat Madison Brengle in the second round of that year's tournament.

She didn't compete in 2023 after announcing she was pregnant, and on her return last year, she was ousted in the first round by Caroline Garcia, who happens to be the same opponent she drew to play in her opener on Monday. 

Osaka is 4-1 for the season although her defeat was by retirement during her most recent tournament in Auckland where she made the final of a WTA tournament for the first time in three years.

After winning the first set 6-4 against Clara Tauson, Osaka shocked the tennis world when she threw in the towel because of injury. She revealed that she got an MRI but hasn't shared the results.

Caroline Garcia Preview

Caroline Garcia last played in mid-September when she lost in the semifinal of Guadalajara to Magdalena Frech. Garcia shared an update just a few days later, stating that she was ending her 2024 season in order to treat a shoulder injury.

She also explained that she had been suffering emotionally and mentally with frequent episodes of anxiety attacks.

Garcia will be playing in her 14th Australian Open main draw. Her benchmark remains two last 16 finishes in 2018 and most recently in 2023.

Last year, she lost in the second round to Frech, just two days after beating Osaka in the first round. Overall, she posted a 17-17 record in 2024.

Naomi Osaka vs Caroline Garcia Head-To-Head

• Osaka and Garcia have met four times at WTA level.

• The head-to-head is tied at 2-2 with their last meeting being in the third round of the 2024 Miami Open.

• Three of their four meetings have featured at least 22 games (all in 2024).

Naomi Osaka vs Caroline Garcia Prediction

We've got ourselves a first-round rematch between these two just 12 months later. Naomi Osaka is the favorite to win outright with some markets instilling her at -400 money line. She should be winning this match and avenging last year's loss to the same opponent.

Garcia has a serve to match, which is pacey and explosive and she can add a touch of variety with spin to make it difficult to read for opponents. But Garcia's confidence has waned and no longer commands the baseline as in her yesteryears. She also hasn't played since September 2024 because of a shoulder injury.

At the same time, the biggest question mark here is Osaka's abdominal injury which forced her to retire in Auckland while leading the final against Clara Tauson. She was almost in tears, worried that she might miss the Australian Open. The state of Osaka's physical fitness is shrouded in mystery. She was tight-lipped in her pre-tournament presser. I'm assuming she's trying to downplay expectations here. And if the apparent injury hasn't fully healed, maybe Garcia pinches a set from nowhere but I recommend staying out of this match.