Daria Kasatkina vs Madison Keys Prediction WTA Adelaide Tennis Picks 1/9/25

Daria Kasatkina beat the junior No. 1 and home wild card Emerson Jones to reach the quarterfinals. The match took 21 games to decide and lasted an hour and 29 minutes.

In the victory, Kasatkina hammered 21 winners and 24 unforced errors. She hit four aces and three double faults. Kasatina landed 65% of first-serves and won 60% of first-serve points (28/47).

The Russian won 48% of second-serve points (12/25) and saved five of eight break points. Kasatkina held in seven of her 10 service games. The World No. 9's return game had to be on point.

Kasatkina won 50% of return points (34/68) and converted six of 10 break points. She will contest a quarterfinal at the WTA Adelaide International for the second year in a row.

Kasatkina made the final 12 months ago after receiving two walkovers, but lost the title match to Jelena Ostapenko.

Madison Keys Preview

Madison Keys came from a set down to knock out the defending champion of WTA Adelaide International Jelena Ostapenko in two hours and eight minutes.

Keys prevented last year's final rematch, by outhitting the Latvian. The American tallied 47 winners and 19 unforced errors.

She landed 60% of first-serves and won 59% of first-serve points (33/56). The former US Open runner-up won 53% of second-serve points (20/38) and saved 11 of 17 break points.

Keys held in eight of her 14 of her service games. She won 50% of return points (51/101) and converted seven of 14 break points.

The World No. 20 improves to 4-1 for the season after finishing as a quarterfinalist in Auckland this past week.

Daria Kasatkina vs Madison Keys Head-To-Head

• Kasatkina and Keys have met 11 times at the highest level.

• Keys has a commanding head-to-head lead, 9-2.

• Keys won their last WTA meeting in the Eastbourne final on grass, while their last hard-court meeting was in San Diego three years ago.

Daria Kasatkina vs Madison Keys Prediction

Kasatkina will probably need a minor miracle to hold off a resurgent Madison Keys who has absolutely dominated this rivalry with nine wins from 11 matches. Of relevance, only one of those nine wins was outside a hard court.

Few players on the WTA Tour can match Keys' seemingly unconstrained power and unerring baseline accuracy. She doesn't relent and I can see her having a relatively comfortable afternoon at the WTA Adelaide International with her physically imposing tennis. Give me Keys in straight sets for maximum returns.