Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings Prediction 10/11/2025 Today’s NHL Picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Detroit Red Wings meet Saturday in NHL action from the Little Caesars Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings prediction.

Toronto Maple Leafs Recap

The Toronto Maple Leafs come into this game looking to add on to their 5-2 win over Montreal last time out to start the year at 1-0. After this game, Toronto will head home for the second leg of a home-and-home against the Red Wings before a back-to-back spot against the Nashville Predators.

Maple Leafs Looking To Build On Strong Showing In Opener

Bobby McMann opened the scoring for the Leafs just one minute into the game before Montreal tied the game at one just 4:39 later. Montreal would take a 2-1 lead 1:30 into the period, but Toronto would tie things at two at almost the same exact time that Montreal scored theirs in the first when they buried in the second period off of the stick of Calle Jarnkrok. Morgan Rielly would give Toronto the lead at the 9:02 mark of the third period and as hard as Montreal would try, Toronto would ice the win with a pair of empty-netters from Auston Matthews and William Nylander to secure the win. Anthony Stolarz got the win after stopping 29 of 31 shots faced in the winning effort to start the year at 1-0.

Detroit Red Wings Recap

The Detroit Red Wings come into this game looking to rebound from their 5-1 loss at the hands of Montreal in their opener to sit at 0-1 this season. After this game, Detroit will head on the road against Toronto in the second half of the home-and-home before taking on the Florida Panthers at home.

Red Wings Looking For Better Showing In Game Two

Detroit opened the scoring just 3:50 into the game thanks to Dylan Larkin but that was where the good news ended, as Montreal would tie the game at one and take a 2-1 lead in a span of 2:29. Montreal would take a 3-1 lead with seven seconds to go in the opening period before pushing the lead to 4-1 5:19 into the second and adding a 5th goal with under three minutes to go in the second period. The Canadiens would coast to the finish line and send Detroit back empty-handed. John Gibson ended up with the loss after allowing all 5 goals on 13 shots faced in the defeat to fall to 0-1 this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Detroit Red Wings Betting Trends: October 11, 2025

Why the Detroit Red Wings will win

• The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last five road openers as favorites.
• The Red Wings have won three of their last four games as home underdogs.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in each of the Red Wings’ last seven games at Little Caesars Arena.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in seven of their last eight games as road favorites.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the third period in each of their last five games at Little Caesars Arena.

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Maple Leafs have won each of their last eight games as favorites following a win.
• The Red Wings have lost four of their last five games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in eight of their last nine road games.
• The Red Wings have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six games following a home loss.
• The road team has won the second period in each of the Red Wings’ last five games.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Maple Leafs’ last five games following a win have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the Red Wings’ last six games as underdogs following a home loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in 16 of the Red Wings’ last 17 games as underdogs.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last seven games at Little Caesars Arena.

Detroit Red Wings Player Prop Facts

• Patrick Kane has recorded at least one point in each of the Red Wings’ last nine home games.
• Patrick Kane has scored a goal in five of his last six appearances with the Red Wings as home underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Dylan Larkin has recorded at least one assist in each of the Red Wings’ last six games against the Maple Leafs at Little Caesars Arena.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• Oliver Ekman-Larsson has recorded at least one assist in each of his last four appearances with the Maple Leafs as road favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Matthew Knies has recorded at least one point in each of his last six appearances with the Maple Leafs as road favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Scott Laughton has scored at least one goal in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite against the Red Wings.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Detroit Red Wings rank T27th in the league for goals against per game this season (5.00).
• The Detroit Red Wings rank T27th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (66.67%).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank T1st in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (100.00%).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank T2nd in the league for goals per game this season (5.00).

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings Prediction

I’m on Toronto here. I know that Detroit is a better team than what they showed in the opener, but I’m starting to think that I’m not fond of the goaltending tandem in the Motor City, of Cam Talbot and John Gibson. Toronto peppered a really solid Montreal team in their opener, and I think they could easily do the same to Detroit here. Give me the Maple Leafs in this one.