Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders Prediction 4/1/25 NHL Picks

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Islanders meet on Tuesday in NHL action from the UBS Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders prediction.

Matchup History

These two teams have split the regular season meetings between the two this season, with New York winning the first meeting on February 1st, 2025, in Tampa Bay by a final score of 3-2 in OT before the Lightning got revenge at home on March 29th, 2025, by a final count of 5-3. The home team has still won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

Tampa Bay Lightning Recap

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game on the heels of a 5-3 win over the Islanders a couple of nights ago to improve to 43-25-5 on the year. After this game, the Lightning will head on the road for a game against the Ottawa Senators.

Lightning Win 3rd In A Row

Nikita Kucherov leads the Bolts with 109 points, including a team-high 33 goals and 76 assists, while Brandon Hagel has 81 points with 33 goals and 48 assists, and Anthony Cirelli has 52 points of his own with 26 goals and 26 assists. Brayden Point has 73 points with 38 goals and 35 assists, while Victor Hedman has 59 points with 46 assists. Jake Guentzel also has 72 points with 37 goals and 35 assists. Andrei Vasilevskiy has gone 35-19-3 with a 2.18 GAA and a .921 save percentage, while Jonas Johansson has gone 8-5-2 with a 3.11 GAA and an .898 save percentage on the year in goal for Tampa Bay.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The favorites have won each of the Lightning’s last eight games.
• The Islanders have lost each of their last five games.
• The Islanders have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six games.
• The favorites have covered the puck line in 10 of the last 11 games between the Lightning and Islanders.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in seven of his last eight appearances with the Lightning as favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• Brandon Hagel has recorded an assist in each of the Lightning’s last six games.
• Brandon Hagel has recorded at least one point in each of the Lightning’s last six games.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks 1st in the league for multi-assist games (23) this season.

New York Islanders Recap

The New York Islanders come into this game looking to bounce back from a 6-4 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes last time out to slip to 32-31-10 on the year. After this game, the Islanders will take on the Wild and Capitals.

Islanders Drop 5th In A Row

Anders Lee has 50 points, including 27 goals and 23 assists, while Kyle Palmieri has 47 points, split between 24 goals and 23 assists. Bo Horvat has 51 points with 24 goals and 27 assists. Simon Holmstrom has 38 points with 17 goals and 21 assists, and Maxim Tsyplakov has 31 points with 8 goals and 23 assists. J-G Pageau has 37 points with 12 goals and 25 assists, and Noah Dobson has 35 points with 27 assists. Ilya Sorokin has gone 27-22-6 with a 2.79 GAA and a .905 save percentage in goal for the Islanders, while Semyon Varlamov is 3-4-3 with a 2.89 GAA and an .889 save percentage this season. Marcus Hogberg has also gone 2-4-1 with a 2.39 GAA and a .915 save percentage as well on the year.

Why the New York Islanders will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Islanders’ last five games at UBS Arena.
• The Lightning have lost five of their last eight games as road favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in each of the Islanders’ last seven games at UBS Arena.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six road games.

New York Islanders Player Prop Facts

• Marc Gatcomb has scored a goal in each of the Islanders’ last three games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Anthony DeAngelo has recorded at least one point in each of his last seven appearances with his team as an underdog against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Mathew Barzal has recorded at least one assist in seven of his last eight appearances with the Islanders as home underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Anthony DeAngelo has scored two goals against the Lightning this season – most against any opponent.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Islanders’ last eight games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Lightning’s last four night games against the Islanders following a home win have gone UNDER the total goals line.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders Prediction

I’m on the Lightning here. I get that the Islanders in some spots could be worth looking at, and the Lightning do perform better at home, but they’ve still been the team in much better form between these two teams as the Islanders just look like a team that’s running out of steam and the white flag is being pulled out further as every day goes by. The Lightning are still in a fight for home ice and for the Atlantic division title, and I think they take another step in the right direction with a win on the road here. Give me Tampa Bay.