Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 4/19/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

The Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning meet Sunday in NHL Game 1 at the Benchmark International Arena. Here’s a Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction. This article will include a Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Pick.

Montreal Canadiens Betting Preview

The Montreal Canadiens lost to the Flyers and beat the Islanders. The Canadiens have won 11 of their last 14 games.

The Montreal Canadiens are averaging 3.4 goals per game and are scoring on 23.1 percent of their power play opportunities. Cole Caufield leads Montreal with 51 goals, Nick Suzuki has 72 assists and Juraj Slafkovsky has 180 shots on goal. Defensively, the Montreal Canadiens are allowing 3.06 goals per game and are killing 78.2 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Jakub Dobes has given up 117 goals on 1,187 shots faced, and Sam Montembeault has allowed 81 goals on 635 shots.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning recently beat the Red Wings and lost to the Rangers. The Lightning have lost 4 of their last 6 games.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are averaging 3.49 goals per game and are scoring on 20.7 percent of their power-play opportunities. Nikita Kucherov leads Tampa Bay with 44 goals, Jake Guentzel has 50 assists, and Darren Raddysh has 212 shots on goal. Defensively, the Tampa Bay Lightning are allowing 2.79 goals per game and are killing 82.6 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed 132 goals on 1,483 shots faced, while Jonas Johansson has given up 78 goals on 670 shots.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won 10 of their last 11 home games against the Canadiens following a loss.
• The Canadiens have lost nine of their last 10 games at Benchmark International Arena following a road loss.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last four games at Benchmark International Arena following a loss.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Canadiens have lost the third period in three of their last four road games against Eastern Conference opponents.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won each of their last eight games as underdogs following a road loss.
• The Lightning have lost four of their last five night games.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last 20 games as road underdogs.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have lost the second period in four of their last five games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents when tied after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Seven of the Canadiens’ last eight night games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Five of the last six night games between the Canadiens and Lightning at Benchmark International Arena have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Three of the last four night games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last nine home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Canadiens’ last seven games at Benchmark International Arena.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in each of his last seven Sunday night home appearances.
• Ryan McDonagh has recorded an assist in each of his last four appearances at Benchmark International Arena.
• Zemgus Girgensons has recorded at least four shots in each of his last zero appearances—the [longest/equal-longest] active streak in the league.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Juraj Slafkovsky has scored the first goal in five of the Canadiens’ last six road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Juraj Slafkovsky has recorded an assist in seven of the Canadiens’ last eight games as underdogs.
• Cole Caufield has scored at least one goal in seven of his last eight appearances with the Canadiens as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Kirby Dach has recorded at least four shots in each of his last zero appearances—the [longest/equal-longest] active streak in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league for goals per game this season (3.49).
• The Montreal Canadiens are one of only three teams with two or more players to record at least 60 assists this season (Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson).
• The Montreal Canadiens rank T4th in the league in short-handed goals allowed this season (4).

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

The Lightning has become a sexy, trendy pick to win the cup, so they’re going to have these inflated prices. The Lightning should be favored, but I’m not sure about the price. The Habs are a solid team that has the defense to clog the middle of the ice and make life tougher for the Lightning. Also, the Canadiens were ridiculously good on the road this season and will have confidence after beating the Lightning twice over the last three weeks. The Canadiens earned some playoff experience last year and were able to build on that by earning 15 more points. The Canadiens aren’t getting enough respect with these prices and I’m willing to take a shot with them and the big plus money.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Montreal Canadiens