Rams at Cardinals: Desperate Times in the Desert

*Week 10 | Sunday, Nov. 15 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS | State Farm Stadium, Glendale*

*Rams -10.5 | Total 39.5*

Back in August, nobody was worried about the Los Angeles Rams. They were the prohibitive favorites, the team everyone else was chasing. Now, at 5-4, they sit at +1300 to win the Super Bowl, trailing their own division rival, the 49ers (+540), and five other teams. The margin for error is gone. One slip against a team they should beat, and the playoffs start to slip away.

John Ryan is the top NBA handicapper at Pickdawgz.com and he started the NBA season out with an incredible 15-4 ATS record good for 79% winning bets. He is 9-4 in the NHL making +466, and 4-2 ATS to start the CBB season. Plus, 65% ATS in College Football and 58% ATS in the NFL. Tap into his 30-years of proven and successful betting experience with a paid subscription that ensures you will never miss a betting opportunity. See all his outstanding subscriptions right here

The good news is the Rams know how to get up off the mat. They arrive in the desert riding a three-game winning streak, both straight up and against the spread, with wins over the winless Chargers and the Raiders and Commanders, who also have losing records.

Waiting for them are the Arizona Cardinals, 3-5 straight up, 4-5 against the spread and 5-4 to the Over. Their season has played out in a simple pattern. When they win, they cover. When they lose, they fail to cover. The lone exception came against the 49ers, a 36-30 loss as a 7.5-point underdog.

The Number That Looks Wrong

Then there’s the total: just 39.5 points. At first glance, it looks like a gift. Bet the Over and go to lunch.

Not so fast. Of the 135 NFL games played this season, only 16 (12%) have carried a total below 40. Those games have gone 22-10 to the Under, a 69% winner. The number that looks too low is the one the market has been getting right.

What the Algorithm Sees

So where is the value? Start with an NFL betting algorithm that has been quietly cashing tickets for years, a 132-49 straight-up (73%) and 117-63-2 against-the-spread record (65%) since 2022. It triggers when:

– Our team has won four or five of its last six games.
– Our opponent has lost two of its last three.

The deeper you dig, the better it gets:

– When our team is on the road, the record improves to 61-31-1 straight up and 61-30-2 against the spread (67%).
– When the opponent has won 40% or fewer of its games, our favorites are 30-8 straight up and 29-9 against the spread (76.3%) since 2021.
– The clincher: the opponent scored 13 points or fewer in its previous game. The Cardinals scored three. In those spots, our favorite is 11-3-1 against the spread (79%).

The Matchup on the Field

Start with the Rams offense. It ranks fourth in the league at 379.8 yards per game and 13th in scoring at 23.8 points a game. Matthew Stafford has thrown for 2,374 yards, 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Kyren Williams has 593 rushing yards and six touchdowns, and he is the safest piece in a thin skill group.

The Arizona defense gives up 28.3 points a game. Detroit hung 45 on it, and Denver scored 30.

The Cardinals’ backfield is decimated. James Conner hasn’t played this season. Rookie Jeremiyah Love is on injured reserve. Bam Knight is questionable. That leaves Tyler Allgeier (369 yards, about 4.1 a carry) to carry the load against a Rams run defense that allows 103.8 rushing yards a game.

Expect the Rams to show different looks, hunting three-on-two matchup advantages against both the run and the pass. The goal is simple: limit yards on first down and push Arizona into obvious passing downs.

How the Game Could Play Out

Arizona’s last outing was a dreadful 17-3 loss to the Seahawks, where it failed to cover as a 9.5-point underdog. With the Under trending in games with a total below 40, it’s hard to see how the Cardinals find multiple touchdowns against this Rams defense.

Read the market carefully and the picture is clear. A 10.5-point spread and a 39.5-point total imply a final score of Rams 25, Cardinals 15. Now look at what happens when games land there:

– The Cardinals are 0-19 straight up and 2-17 against the spread (10.5%) when they score 15 points or fewer since 2022.
– The Rams are 20-0 straight up and 18-2 against the spread (90%) when they hold an opponent to 15 points or fewer since 2022.

When the market tells you the score, and the history of that exact score tells you who wins, the story writes itself.

The Play: Rams -10.5

Put it all together and the bet is the Rams laying 10.5 points. A desperate favorite, a proven algorithm, a Cardinals team that has never found a way to win when it can’t score, and a Rams defense that has never lost when it holds an opponent under 16. It’s a lot of points to lay, but the numbers say this game ends the way the market says it will.

Live Betting Strategy: Bet Smarter, Not Earlier

Here’s a strategy I have used successfully for the past five seasons. No rule says you have to place your entire bet before kickoff.

Consider betting 75% of your normal amount before the game starts. Then watch the first half and look for the Cardinals to score first. A field goal will do, but a touchdown is better. The same goes if Arizona takes the lead at any point in the first half. When that happens, place the remaining 25% at the live betting line. You get a better number on the same side you already liked before kickoff, and you let the game show you the moment to add.

John Ryan's Pick: RAMS