Patriots vs Lions Prediction 11/15/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

Patriots vs Lions Prediction

International games are always tricky, so who knows how a trip to Germany is going to impact these teams. With that said, the Patriots are giving the same vibes as last season. What I mean by that is the Patriots look great against bad teams but come up short against playoff teams. We saw it last week, where the Packers had their way with that New England secondary. The Patriots are now 25th in pass defense, which isn’t ideal when going up against the weapons of this Lions team.

The Lions have found their way over the last month, and while the offense gets a lot of the credit, it’s their defense that’s allowing an average of 15.5 points during this streak. This line being this soft feels like a steal, but I can’t talk myself into the Patriots with how they’ve looked against the better team on their schedule. The Lions are in far better shape on both sides of the ball. I’ll lay the points with the Lions.

Patriots Betting Preview

The Patriots lost to the Packers, beat the Dolphins, and they play the Chargers next. The Patriots have won 5 of their last 8 games. Drake Maye is completing 65.4 percent of his passes for 2,282 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Maye has been sacked 20 times this season. DeMario Douglas has 434 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns on 31 receptions. Hunter Henry has 361 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns on 32 receptions. Romeo Doubs has 261 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns on 14 receptions.

The Patriots average 119.9 rushing yards, and Rhamondre Stevenson leads the team with 399 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, the Patriots are allowing 23 points and 328.6 total yards per game. The Patriots have forced 5 turnovers. Christian Elliss leads the Patriots with 65 tackles. Elijah Ponder leads the Patriots with 7.5 sacks. Charles Woods leads the Patriots with 1 interception.

Detroit Lions Betting Preview

The Detroit Lions beat the Vikings and Dolphins, and play the Buccaneers next. The Detroit Lions have won 4 straight games. Jared Goff is completing 67.8 percent of his passes for 2,134 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Goff has been sacked 19 times this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown has 657 yards and 5 touchdowns on 61 catches. Sam LaPorta has 399 yards and 3 touchdowns on 35 catches. Jameson Williams has 468 yards and 5 touchdowns on 28 catches.

The Detroit Lions’ ground game is averaging 127.8 yards per contest, and Jahmyr Gibbs leads the way with 847 yards and 9 touchdowns. Defensively, Detroit is allowing 23.6 points and 355 yards per game. Jack Campbell leads the Lions with 57 tackles. Alim McNeil has 5.5 sacks. Chuck Clark has 2 interceptions.

Why the Detroit Lions will win

• The Lions have won each of their last seven Sunday games.
• The Patriots have lost each of their last four games against NFC opponents.
• The Lions have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as favorites without Alim McNeill.
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against NFC opponents.
• The Patriots have lost the first half in four of their last five games at neutral venues.

Why the New England Patriots will win

• The Patriots have won four of their last five games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Lions have lost three of their last four games as favorites without Sam LaPorta.
• The Lions have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as favorites without Sam LaPorta.
• The Patriots have covered the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Lions have lost the first half in three of their last four November games as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Patriots’ last six games without Harold Landry have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of the Lions’ last six November games against AFC East opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Detroit Lions Player Prop Facts

• Jahmyr Gibbs has scored the last touchdown in each of the Lions’ last three day games against AFC opponents.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has recorded 143+ rushing and receiving yards in five of the Lions’ last six Sunday day games.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has recorded 99+ rushing yards in five of the Lions’ last six Sunday-day games.
• Isaac TeSlaa has recorded 26+ receiving yards in three of the Lions’ last four games against AFC opponents.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Lions’ last eight games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 10, Jahmyr Gibbs is the only player to have recorded 10+ total touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. (including 2026).

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

• Demario Douglas has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Patriots’ last four Sunday games.
• Demario Douglas has recorded 65+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last four Sunday games.
• Mack Hollins has recorded 41+ receiving yards in each of his last six regular season appearances with the Patriots as underdogs.
• Heading into Week 10, Elijah Ponder ranks T4th in the NFL in sacks (7.5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 10, the Lions rank 1st in the NFL in average points scored in third quarters this season (8.5).
• Lions – only team with 3+ players to record at least 5.0 sacks this season (Aidan Hutchinson, D.J. Wonnum, Alim McNeill), heading into Week 10.
• Patriots – eight different players have recorded 50+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.
• Patriots – six different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Detroit -2.5