Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction 11/1/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction

The Patriots have a history of struggling in Miami going back to the Tom Brady days. The Dolphins are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Patriots. The Pats have shown signs of getting their act together, but the offense still has issues finishing drives, and you can pass on this secondary a bit. As I said last week, the Dolphins are more competitive than the results suggest.

The Dolphins took the Bengals, Vikings, and Chiefs down to the wire. A bounce here or bounce there and the Dolphins have three of four wins. It’s why I suggest the Dolphins spread and ML last week against the Jets, and that game wasn’t as close as the score indicated. I’ll grab the free touchdown with the Dolphins against the Patriots on Sunday.

New England Patriots Betting Preview

The New England Patriots beat the Jets, lost to the Bears, and they play the Packers next. The New England Patriots have won 3 of their last 4 games. Drake Maye is completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 1,784 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Hunter Henry and Romeo Doubs have combined for 557 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while DeMario Douglas has 23 receptions.

The New England Patriots’ ground game is averaging 122 yards per contest, and Rhamondre Stevenson leads the way with 285 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, New England is allowing 20.4 points and 315.7 yards per game. Christian Elliss leads the New England Patriots with 51 tackles, Elijah Ponder has 5.5 sacks, and Gabe Jacas has 1 interception.

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins lost to the Bengals, beat the Jets, and they play the Lions next. The Dolphins haven’t won two straight games since November 30 – December 7. Malik Willis is completing 57.6 percent of his passes for 1,057 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Malik Washington and Greg Dulcich have combined for 502 receiving yards on 44 catches, while Caleb Douglas has 9 receptions.

The Miami Dolphins’ ground game is averaging 131.5 yards per contest, and Ollie Gordon II leads the way with 339 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Miami is allowing 26.2 points and 337.7 yards per game. Jacob Rodriguez leads the Miami Dolphins with 61 tackles, Zach Sieler has 2 sacks, and Michael Taaffe has 2 interceptions.

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

• The Dolphins have won each of their last 13 day games at Hard Rock Stadium following a win.
• The Patriots have lost each of their seven previous day games at Hard Rock Stadium following a road loss.
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine road games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games at Hard Rock Stadium following a Division win.
• The underdogs have won the first quarter in each of the Patriots’ last two Week 8 games.
• The Patriots have lost the first half in each of their last four Week 8 games against AFC East opponents.

Why the New England Patriots will win

• The Patriots have won each of their last 14 Sunday games as favorites.
• The Dolphins have lost 15 of their last 16 games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last eight Week 8 games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 13 games as underdogs following a win.
• The Dolphins have lost the first half in each of their last six games as underdogs following a win.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the last eight day games between AFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Patriots’ last six games as favorites following a road loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Eight of the Dolphins’ last nine day games against AFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• Ollie Gordon II has scored a touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last four games as underdogs.
• Chris Bell has recorded 25+ receiving yards in three of the Dolphins’ last four games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Ollie Gordon II has recorded 88+ rushing yards in each of the Dolphins’ last three games as underdogs.
• Ollie Gordon II has recorded 88+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last three games as underdogs.
• Heading into Week 8, Bradley Pinion ranks T8th in the league for fumbles recovered (1) this season.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

• Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 54+ rushing yards in three of the Patriots’ last four days games against the Dolphins.
• Hunter Henry has recorded 45+ receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last four games as favorites against AFC East opponents.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 92+ rushing and receiving yards in three of the Patriots’ last four day games against the Dolphins.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five road appearances on the East Coast.
• Heading into Week 8, Elijah Ponder ranks T4th in the league for tackles for loss (7) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 8, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in sacks (6.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 8, the Dolphins rank 1st in the NFL in kickoff return yards per game (133.0) this season.
• Patriots – eight different players have recorded 50+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 8.
• Patriots – six different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 8.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Miami +7