New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction 11/23/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The New England Patriots and the Cincinnati Bengals meet Sunday in NFL action from Paycor Stadium. Here’s a Patriots vs Bengals prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Patriots vs Bengals pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

New England Patriots Betting Preview

The Pats opened on a rough run this year, losing to the Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers alongside a win over the Dolphins. New England would take out Carolina, Buffalo, New Orleans, Tennessee, Cleveland, Atlanta and Tampa Bay from there, however. In the November 9 win over Tampa Bay, the Patriots scored in every quarter—and gave up points in every quarter—in a 28-23 result. The offense generated 435 total yards with 7.4 yards per play but only 16 first downs and a 5-of-14 success rate on third-down conversion attempts.

Last Thursday versus the New York Jets, the Patriots were able to keep their run going. New England outscored the Jets 13-7 in the second half in a 27-14 victory. QB Drake Maye logged a 25-of-34 line for 281 yards and a score while TreVeyon Henderson rushed 19 times for 62 yards and two scores. Stefan Diggs led the receivers on 105 yards from nine catches.

Cincinnati Bengals Betting Preview

Over on the Bengals’ side, they won their first couple of games versus the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars. Cincinnati lost to Minnesota, Denver, Detroit and Green Bay from there before getting another win over the Steelers. The Bengals would lose their next outing to the winless Jets however, then dropped another game to the Bears. In that one Cincinnati fell 47-42 after a wild shootout. The Bengals gained 495 yards total with 449 coming through the air. The defense gave up 576 yards on the other side with 283 rushing yards and 7.6 yards per play in the defeat.

In their last outing versus the rival Steelers on Sunday, Cincinnati was within four points at the break. The Bengals ended up surrendering points in every quarter however, resulting in a relative blowout 34-12 as the final horn sounded. QB Joe Flacco logged 199 yards, one TD and one pick on 23-of-40 passing. Chase Brown led the rush with 18 carries for 99 yards, and Tee Higgins was tops receiving on 63 yards and a score from three catches.

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends: Week 12

Why the Cincinnati Bengals will win

• The Patriots have lost four of their last five games as road favorites following a home win.
• The Bengals have won eight of their last nine home games against AFC opponents on a winning streak.
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight road games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Bengals have covered the spread in six of their last seven home games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Bengals have won the first quarter in each of their last two games as home underdogs against AFC East opponents.
• The Patriots have lost the first half in seven of their last eight November road games against AFC opponents.

Why the New England Patriots will win

• The Bengals have lost each of their last 10 Sunday games as underdogs.
• The Patriots have won each of their last seven Sunday games.
• The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last six Sunday road games.
• The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four Week 12 games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Patriots have won the first quarter in three of their last four games against the Bengals following a win.
• The Bengals have lost the first half in five of their last six Sunday games as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Bengals’ last seven games at Paycor Stadium following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the last four Sunday games at Paycor Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Patriots’ last four November games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Facts

• Chase Brown has recorded 73+ rushing yards in each of the Bengals’ last three games against AFC opponents.
• Tanner Hudson has recorded 13+ receiving yards in each of his nine previous November appearances against AFC opponents.
• Chase Brown has recorded 100+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bengals’ last four games.
• Joe Flacco has recorded 260+ passing yards in seven of his last eight appearances against the Patriots.
• Ja’Marr Chase has scored two touchdowns in three of the Bengals’ last four games as underdogs against teams on a winning streak.
• Tee Higgins has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last nine appearances at Paycor Stadium.
• Joe Burrow has recorded 25+ completions in seven of his last eight Sunday regular season appearances with the Bengals as home underdogs.
• Heading into Week 12, Ryan Rehkow ranks 1st amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (53.1) this season.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

• Stefon Diggs has scored a touchdown in six of his last seven November road appearances.
• Drake Maye has recorded 28+ rushing yards in three of the Patriots’ last four Sunday games as favorites.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 58+ receiving yards in 16 of his last 18 appearances with his team as a road favorite against AFC opponents.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 74+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of his last nine November road appearances.
• Drake Maye has recorded 259+ passing yards in each of the Patriots’ last four games.
• Drake Maye has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Patriots’ last three November games against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 12, Drake Maye has the highest completion percentage in a single game (min. 10 ATT) this season (91.3% vs Titans, Week 7).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 12, the Bengals rank 32nd in the NFL in points allowed per game (33.4) this season.
• Heading into Week 12, the Bengals rank 32nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game (418.2) this season.
• Patriots – seven different players have recorded 60+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 12.
• Patriots – seven different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 12.

Patriots vs Bengals Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Patriots. New England didn’t have a ton of issues with the lowly Jets offense in their last game, giving up just 245 yards, 105 passing yards, 15 first downs and 4.3 yards per play. The offense was pretty consistent on the other side, posting 336 yards with 23 first downs and a 6-of-12 success rate on third downs. The zero turnovers and low two-penalty total helped quite a bit as well. The Pats have scored 23 or more points in every game during this current winning streak.

As for Cincinnati, they could only muster a pair of field goals after the first quarter in their ugly road loss to Pittsburgh last week. The Bengals offense generated a tepid 297 yards with 4.7 yards per play, 17 first downs and a couple of turnovers. The eight penalties didn’t help either. Cincinnati is flailing right now on three straight losses. They’ve given up 27 or more points in nine straight games as well. The lone outlier this season was a 17-16 win over the Browns in the opener. The Bengals are in rough shape and I can’t trust them to do anything right now.

Andrew Jett's Pick: New England Patriots -8.5